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武汉城市圈农业氨排放及对PM2.5的影响

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氨作为大气细颗粒物(PM2。5)形成的重要前体物,研究其排放时空变化、减排潜力及对PM2。5的影响,对科学设置氨减排目标,制定实施氨排放控制政策具有重要意义。该研究分析了2010-2020年武汉城市圈9个城市农业氨排放时空变化,然后以2020年为基准年,基于当前及规划政策的未来预期减排措施,估算未来2030年各城市农业氨排放水平,评估农业氨减排潜力,并进一步基于大气PM2。5组分观测,结合热力学模型分析各城市农业氨减排对PM2。5的影响。结果表明:(1)2010-2020年武汉城市圈农业氨排放呈现先上升后下降趋势,2020年较2010年整体下降16。1%,武汉市贡献了区域35。7%的农业氨排放下降。(2)生产效率、产业调整和生产收益是区域农业氨排放变化的主要驱动因素,对畜禽养殖和化肥施用氨排放变化的驱动贡献达90%以上,城镇化和总人口增长对氨排放变化的驱动作用可忽略不计。(3)武汉城市圈2030年农业氨减排潜力约为19。4%,在相对减排潜力上,鄂州市2030年农业氨减排潜力最大,而从绝对减排量上看,孝感市氨减排量将最大,约占城市圈总减排量的50%。(4)二次无机组分对各城市PM2。5贡献为51。1%~73。2%,是区域PM2。5最主要组分。鄂州市PM2。5浓度对氨减排敏感性响应最强,区域均值上,未来2030年武汉城市圈可通过农业氨减排实现大气PM2。5达标,但武汉、黄石、孝感和咸宁等城市PM2。5对氨减排响应较弱,区域局部城市仍可能出现PM2。5超标。
Agricultural Ammonia Emission of Wuhan City Cluster:Its Impacts on PM2.5
Ammonia is an important precursor of fine particulate matter(PM2.5),so studying its spatio-temporal variation,emission reduction potential and the impacts on PM2.5 is of considerable significance for scientifically setting ammonia control targets and formulating ammonia emission policies.In this study the spatio-temporal variation in agricultural ammonia emission in nine cities of the Wuhan City Cluster from 2010 to 2020 was analyzed.With the year 2020 being as the base year,the agricultural ammonia emissions of 2030 in each of the nine cities were estimated based on the current and planned policies,and the reduction potential of agricultural ammonia emissions in each city was also evaluated.Furthermore,according to the observation data of the components of PM2.5,combined with the thermodynamic model,the impact of agricultural ammonia on PM2.5 was evaluated.Consequently,the results obtained suggested from 2010 to 2020,the agricultural ammonia emis-sions in the Wuhan City Cluster tended an increase at first and then followed by decreases,showing an overall emission de-crease of 16.1%,with Wuhan City proper contributed 35.7%of the whole.The main driving factors of regional agriculture ammonia emission variation consisted of production efficiency,industrial adjustment and production benefits,which particu-larly contributed more than 90%to the livestock and fertilizer-application sectors in terms of ammonia emission variation,however,the effect of urbanization and total population growth on ammonia emissions changes could be ignored.It could be foreseen that in the year 2030 the reduction potential of agricultural ammonia emissions would be about 19.4%in terms of relative reduction potential of agricultural ammonia emission,and among the cities,Ezhou City had the biggest reduction po-tential in 2030,while Xiaogan City will have the largest reduction potential in terms of absolute emission reduction,account-ing for approximately half of the total emission reduction of the City Cluster;and the secondary inorganic component being the major constituent of the regional PM2.5,its contribution to PM2.5 ranged 51.1%~73.2%for each of the nine cities,and Ezhou City's PM2.5 concentration changes to ammonia emission reduction was most sensitive,however,cities such as Wu-han,Huangshi,Xiaogan,and Xianning showed rather weak PM2.5 responses to ammonia emission reduction,some of the cit-ies in this region might failed short of the PM2.5 standard.

ammonia emissionsreduction potentialPM2.5Wuhan City Cluster

陈榕玙、许昌浩、许可、郑明明

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武汉轻工大学化学与环境工程学院,湖北 武汉 430023

湖北省生态环境监测中心站,湖北 武汉 430072

氨排放 减排潜力 PM2.5 武汉城市圈

国家自然科学基金项目武汉市知识创新专项曙光计划项目

423071512022020801020398

2024

环境科学与技术
湖北省环境科学研究院

环境科学与技术

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.943
ISSN:1003-6504
年,卷(期):2024.47(4)