Analysis and Multi-scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage in Zhangjiakou City under Land Use Structure Change
Land use changes promote variations in ecosystem carbon storage,thereby influencing global climate.Investigat-ing the impact of land use changes on carbon storage is crucial for regional ecosystem management and achieving economic sustainability.Taking Zhangjiakou City,Hebei Province as a case study,this research utilizes land use data from 2000,2010,and 2020,coupled with the PLUS and In VEST models,to analyze the relationship between land use changes and carbon storage.Furthermore,it evaluates carbon storage under different future scenarios.The results showed that the land use types were mainly cropland and grassland,accounting for about 71％of the total area.Over the past 20 years,there has been a declining trend in the area of cropland and grassland,while the area of forest land and cropland has showed an increasing trend,and the main direction of conversion was cultivated land to construction land.In 2030,under the natural development scenario,there will be a decrease in the areas of cropland,forestland,and water bodies,while grassland,construction land,and unused land will experience growth.In the ecological protection scenario,compared to natural development,there will be an increase in forestland and grassland,with other land categories experiencing varying degrees of reduction.Under the crop-land protection scenario,the area of cropland is projected to increase by approximately 1.11 km2 compared to the natural de-velopment scenario.Over the past 20 years,the carbon storage in this region increased first and then decreased,but the overall carbon storage showed a downward trend,with an average annual decrease of 0.19x106t.Under the natural develop-ment scenario in 2030,carbon storage is 766.43x106 t;under the cropland protection scenario,the carbon storage is 767.28× 106 t,under the ecological protection scenario,the carbon storage is 768.5×106 t.Cropland protection falls between natu-ral development and ecological protection in terms of carbon storage,suggesting that the City should prioritize crop-land development while implementing certain ecological protection measures to mitigate the rate of decline in carbon storage in future development.
land use structure changePLUS modelIn VEST modelcarbon storageZhangjiakou City
万方数据
维普
