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北京市减污降碳协同效应和驱动因素分析

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文章对北京市2010-2020年大气污染物和CO2非放趋势进行了分析,采用协同效应系数评估了减污降碳协同效应,并利用LMDI模型探究了影响大气污染物和CO2排放的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)北京市主要大气污染物和CO2排放均有所下降,并呈现不同的阶段性特征;(2)已实施的减排措施基本具有协同效应,对大气污染物的减排作用普遍大于CO2,且"十二五"时期的协同效果总体好于"十三五"时期;(3)人口规模和经济发展对大气污染物和CO2排放有正向驱动影响,能耗强度降低和能源结构优化对排放有较显著的负向驱动影响,且两者的协同减排综合驱动影响"十二五"时期高于"十三五"时期。最后,从能耗强度降低、能源结构优化和减污降碳技术研发应用等角度提出了北京市减污降碳协同增效的建议。
Synergy Effects and Driving Factors of Pollution and Carbon Emissions Reduction in Beijing
This article analyzed the trends of air pollutants and CO2 emissions in Beijing from 2010 to 2020,evaluated the synergistic effects of pollution and carbon emissions reduction with synergistic effect coefficients,and explored the driving factors affecting air pollutants emissions and CO2 emissions by using the LMDI model.The results showed that the main air pollutants and CO2 emissions in Beijing both decreased,but showed different phased characteristics.The implemented emis-sion reduction measures basically had synergistic effect,and the emission reduction effect on air pollutants was generally higher than that of CO2,and the synergistic effect of the"Twelfth Five-Year Plan"period was generally better than that of the"Thirteenth Five-Year Plan"period.Population size and economic development had positive driving effects on air pollut-ants and CO2 emissions,while the reduction of energy intensity and optimization of energy structure had a significant nega-tive driving effect on emissions,and the comprehensive driving effect of synergistic emission reduction of the two in the"Twelfth Five-Year Plan"period were higher than that of the"Thirteenth Five-Year Plan"period.Finally,suggestions were put forward for synergistic efficiency of pollution and carbon emissions reduction in Beijing from the perspectives of reduc-ing energy intensity,optimizing energy structure,and developing and applying pollution and carbon reduction technologies.

pollution and carbon emissions reductionsynergy effectsdriving factorsBeijing

张双、瞿艳芝、俞珊、牟洁、刘桐珅、张增杰

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北京市生态环境保护科学研究院,北京 100037

国家城市环境污染控制工程技术研究中心,北京 100037

减污降碳 协同效应 驱动因素 北京市

北京市生态环境保护科学研究院项目

JZ2021-011

2024

环境科学与技术
湖北省环境科学研究院

环境科学与技术

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.943
ISSN:1003-6504
年,卷(期):2024.47(7)