Study on the Prediction of Industrial Carbon Emissions and Reduction Path in Nanchang High-tech Zone
As an important carrier of China's industrial activities,industrial parks are the key to achieve low-carbon emis-sion reduction and implement the goal of double carbon in China's industrial sector.This paper takes Nanchang High-tech Industrial Development Zone(Park)as the research object,firstly,based on the industrial terminal energy consumption data of the Park,the carbon emission status and different industries from 2016 to 2022 is analyzed.Then,construct a Kaya extended model and use scenario analysis to predict the total amount and peak state of industrial carbon emissions in the Park.Finally,according to the forecast results and the development characteristics of the Park,reasonable low-carbon development sugges-tions are put forward.The results show that from the perspective of carbon emission characteristics,the total industrial carbon emissions in Nanchang High-tech Zone are increasing annually,while the carbon emission intensity is decreasing over time.Electricity consumption contributes the largest share of carbon emissions,with its proportion rising annually.The carbon emis-sion of computer,communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry occupies a leading position in all industries.From the perspective of scenario prediction analysis,the emission reduction effect under the multi-factor optimiza-tion scenario is the best and can reach the peak in 2025,while the economic level scenario,energy intensity scenario and carbon emission factor scenario can reach the peak in 2030.Among them,the economic level has the greatest influence on the future carbon peaking state of the Zone.The base scenario and the energy mix scenario have not peak before 2030.From the perspective of emission reduction path analysis,the future emission reduction path mainly starts with the decarbonization of the power sector,the green transformation and upgrading of key industries,and the promotion of healthy and high-quality economic development.This study can provide reference for the formulation of emission reduction strategy and the realization of dual carbon targets in industrial parks in China.
万方数据
维普
