Impact of Land Use on Carbon Storage in Karst Mountainous Areas Under Multiple Scenarios
The ecosystem in karst areas is fragile,sensitive to climate change,and has huge carbon sink potential.Its ecologi-cal management changes the land use pattern,causing significant changes in ecosystem carbon storage,and has a profound impact on the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems and regional ecological security.Using the Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture,a representative karst region in the southeastern Yunnan Province,as a case study,the study used the InVEST model and the hybrid cellular automaton(MCCA)model to predict the distribution of carbon stocks in 2035 under three scenarios:natural development,cultivated land protection,and ecological protection.The global Moran's I index and sensitivity index were used to study the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon stocks and the impact of land use changes on carbon stocks respectively.The results show the land use in Wenshan Prefecture is mainly cultivated land,forest land and grassland,accounting for more than 90％of the total area of the study area.Land conversion is concentrated between forest land,grassland,cultivated land and construction land.The study area boasts a substantial carbon storage,yet as land use patterns shifted,its carbon sequestration capacity and potential underwent a decline.Over the span of 2000 to 2020,the carbon storage reduced by 0.66 Tg.Moran's I index all passed 90％confidence level,indicating that carbon storage shows a spatial agglomeration effect in space.In 2035,forestland change is the main cause of carbon storage changes.The carbon storage under the three scenarios of natural development,ecological protection and cultivated land protection was 192.40 Tg,192.00 Tg and 193.13 Tg respectively.Under the three scenarios,carbon storage changed by 0.11 Tg,-0.29 Tg and 0.84 Tg,respectively.According to the sensitivity index,it was found that carbon stocks are sensitive to land use changes.By comparison,it can be seen that under the scenario of ecological protection,the regional carbon sequestration capacity is stron-ger.It is suggested that the study area should scientifically increase the forest area,optimize the spatial pattern of existing land use,and control construction land to enhance carbon storage.
land use changecarbon storageMCCA modelscenario simulationsoutheast Yunnan karst region
万方数据
维普
