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基于GMD-GRA-TOPSIS的成渝城市群资源环境承载力评价

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城镇化的快速发展给城市带来压力，导致资源短缺、环境污染等问题，制约城市的可持续发展，资源环境问题也是制约成渝城市群可持续发展的重要因素。该文基于DPSIRM模型构建评价指标体系，利用GMD-GRA-TOPSIS模型对2010-2020年成渝城市群资源环境承载力进行对比，再采用灰色预测模型对成渝城市群未来资源环境承载力进行预警。结果表明，2010-2020年，成渝城市群各市资源环境承载力趋势各异，在资源环境方面具有一定的承载能力;在地区分布上，相邻城市具有直接效应，地理上的接近，更容易受到彼此的影响，相隔城市具有间接效应，或受上层政策、区域发展规划等影响;在预警评价上，2025年成渝城市群资源环境承载力警情状况整体较稳定，且局部有改善趋势，为城市发展提供有效改进思路。
Evaluation of Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity of Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration Based on GMD-GRA-TOPSIS
The rapid development of urbanization brings pressure on the city,resulting in resource shortage,environmental pollution and other issues,which restricts the sustainable development of the city.Resources and environmental problems are also important factors that restrict the sustainable development of Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration.Based on the DPSIRM model,this paper constructs the evaluation index system,integrates the GMD-GRA-TOPSIS model to compare the carrying capacity of resources and environment of the Urban Agglomeration from 2010 to 2020,and then uses the grey predic-tion model to early warn the future carrying capacity of resources and environment.The results show that the trend of carrying capacity of resources and environment in the Urban Agglomeration from 2010 to 2020 is different,and there is a certain carry-ing capacity of resources and environment in these areas.Spatially,adjacent cities have direct effects,geographical proximity is more likely to be affected by each other,and distant cities have indirect effects on each other,plausibly influenced by upper higher-level policies,regional development planning,etc.According to the early warning evaluation,the overall situa-tion of resource and environment carrying capacity of the Urban Agglomeration in 2025 is relatively stable,and there is a trend of improvement in some areas,which provides effective improvement ideas for urban development.

GMD-GRA-TOPSIS modelDPSIRM modelresource and environmental carrying capacityChengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration

骆毓燕、向平平、刘俊林、程华妹、戢佳丽

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成都理工大学管理科学学院,四川 成都 610059

GMD-GRA-TOPSIS模型 DPSIRM模型 资源环境承载力 成渝城市群

四川省哲学社会科学研究规划重大项目四川省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地长江上游重点生态功能区保护政策研究中心项目四川省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地西部生态文明研究中心项目成都水生态文明建设研究重点基地重点项目

SC21ZDZT010YREPC2023-ZD002XBST2021-YB001SST2021-2022-03

2024

10.19672/j.cnki.1003-6504.0287.24.338

环境科学与技术
湖北省环境科学研究院

环境科学与技术

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.943
ISSN：1003-6504
年,卷(期)：2024.47(9)