The environmental footprint theory,ensemble inversion model and BP neural network model are used to assess the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of water-carbon-nitrogen footprints,eco-environment pressure and sci-tech-nology innovation ability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration(BTHUA)from 2000 to 2025,and then ex-plored the correlation between eco-environment pressure and sci-technology innovation ability in different spatial scales.Results show that the eco-environment pressure generally presents a decreased tendency.Its high-value areas are mainly distributed in the northwest ecological expansion area and the low-value areas are distributed in the central core functional areas.Carbon pressure is the main source of the eco-environment pressure of most cities.There is a large spatial difference in the sci-technology innovation ability of urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2015.Beijing and Tianjin have a significant pulling effect on the central core functional area.The southern ecological expansion area(0.11)is the lowest,which is main-ly limited by Xingtai.The spatial heterogeneity of sci-technology innovation ability in urban agglomeration will be reduced during the period from 2016 to 2025.There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between eco-environment pressure and sci-technology innovation ability.The inflection point of ecological environment pressure is the same as that of water re-source pressure and carbon pressure(i.e.,the year of 2012),which is earlier than the inflection point of nitrogen pressure(i.e.,the year of 2014).In the EKC curve of all provinces and cities,the inflection point of Tianjin(i.e.,the year of 2009)is earlier than Hebei(i.e.,the year of 2013),and Beijing has already entered the second half of EKC.There are significant differences in coordinated development level within urban agglomeration.Beijing and Tianjin have entered a stage of virtuous cycle develop-ment,while Hebei Province is relatively backward.However,Qinhuangdao,Tangshan,and Handan are expected to enter a vir-tuous cycle stage by 2025.
关键词
环境足迹/集成模拟/生态环境压力/科技创新能力/耦合特征/拐点
Key words
environmental footprints/integrated simulation/eco-environment pressure/sci-technology innovation ability/coupling characteristics/inflection point
维普
万方数据