Trajectory Analysis and Multi-scenario Prediction of Carbon Emission from Land-use of Urban Agglomeration Around Poyang Lake
Urban agglomerations play a leading role in China's economic development and social governance,and the study of carbon emissions from land-use in urban agglomerations is helpful to the regional coordinate emission reduction.In this study,the carbon emission coefficient method to measure the land-use carbon emissions of the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake during 2000-2020 was adopted,the standard deviation ellipse was used to further explore the migration trajecto-ry of the land use carbon emissions,and finally the Markov-PLUS model and the gray BP neural network were applied to the multi-scenario prediction of the land-use carbon emissions in 2030.The finding of the study indicated that during the years 2000-2020,the farmland was an important source of rapid expansion of urban agglomerations,land-use carbon emissions showing an upward trend with an average annual increase of 1.880 million tons,while the construction land and forest land were the main contributors of carbon sources and sinks,respectively.As a whole,main part of the carbon emission tended to the change from southwest-ward migration to northeast-ward migration,with a cumulative migrated distance of 37.39 km and 38.50 km,respectively;and the prediction results showed that the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake will have the highest carbon emission(58.826 3 million tons)in the scenario of adequate farmland protection in 2030,followed by the natural development and ecological priority scenarios,with respective 58.764 8 million tons,58 669 4 milliontons.The results drawn from this study could provide the reference basis for the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake to increase car-bon sinks,and to reduce carbon sources,thus realizing the sustainable development of the city.
carbon emissions from land-usestandard deviation ellipseMarkov-PLUS modelgrey BP neural network
万方数据
维普
