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沙颍河流域河南段产水量时空分布格局及未来多情景模拟

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文章选取沙颍河流域河南段为研究区,采用InVEST模型对1990-2020年产水服务功能进行评估,并结合PLUS模型预测了2030年和2050年3种情景下土地利用变化特征及其产水服务未来演变趋势。研究结果表明:(1)1990-2020年,沙颍河流域河南段产水深度呈先增加后减少的趋势;垂直方向上,产水能力随着海拔的增加先降低后增加;空间上,产水能力呈东高西低的分布特征。(2)土地利用类型的产水能力由强到弱依次为未利用地、建设用地、耕地、草地、林地、水域,其中耕地和建设用地是研究区产水服务的主要地类,占总产水量的77%和18%。(3)3种情景下,到2050年研究区产水总量由高到低依次为:城镇发展情景、自然发展情景、耕地保护情景。该研究可为区域制定土地利用政策、水资源管理措施和国土空间治理方案提供支持。
Spatiotemporal Distribution Pattern of Water Yield in the Henan Section of Shaying River Basin and Future Multi-scenario Simulation
Henan section of Shaying River Basin was selected as the study area,and used the In VEST model to assess the function of water yield services from 1990 to 2020,and combined with the PLUS model to predict the evolutionary characteristics of land use/cover and the trend of future changes in water production services under the three scenarios in 2030 and 2050,and the results of the study show that from 1990 to 2020,the depth of water production showed a tendency of increasing and decreasing,and the average water production depth of the section increased and decreased.The water yield depth showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing,showing a spatial distribution characteristic of high in the east and low in the west.The water yielding capacity of land use types,from strong to weak,is unused land,construction land,arable land,grassland,forest land,and watershed,and cultivated land and construction land were the main types of water production services in the study area,accounting for 77%and 18%of the total water yield.Under the three scenarios,the total amount of water production in the study area by 2050 is in descending order:urban development scenario,business-as-usual,and cropland protection scenario.This study can provide support for the regional development of land use policies,water resource management measures,and territorial spatial gover-nance programmes.

water yieldInVEST modelland use changePLUS modelHenan section of Shaying River Basin

王舒雪、汪潇、张智超、文倩

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河南农业大学资源与环境学院,河南 郑州 450002

河南农业大学土地与乡村可持续发展研究中心,河南 郑州 450002

产水量 InVEST模型 土地利用变化 PLUS模型 沙颍河流域河南段

2024

环境科学与技术
湖北省环境科学研究院

环境科学与技术

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.943
ISSN:1003-6504
年,卷(期):2024.47(11)