Based on the calculation of carbon emissions of construction industry in Jiangxi Province from 2005 to 2021,this paper analyzed the influencing factors of carbon emissions of construction industry in Jiangxi Province based on the stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology(STIRPAT)model and used ridge regression and scenario analysis to simulate carbon emissions of construction industry in Jiangxi Province from 2022 to 2050 to predict the time and peak of carbon peak in construction industry under different scenarios.The results showed that the indirect carbon emissions accounted for much more than the direct carbon emissions in construction industry in Jiangxi Province from 2005 to 2021.Among the influencing factors,energy structure was carbon-suppressing factor,and other factors were carbon-promoting factors.The prediction showed that the carbon emission of construction industry in Jiangxi Province would peak in 2040 under the baseline and energy-saving scenarios.The green development scenario would peak in 2030,with the minimum peak carbon emission.It was impossible to judge whether the peak occured under the extensive scenario.
关键词
建筑业碳排放/STIRPAT模型/影响因素/碳达峰预测/情景分析
Key words
construction industry carbon emission/STIRPAT model/influencing factors/carbon peak prediction/scenario analysis
维普
万方数据