County carbon peak type classification and influencing factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei based on decoupling model and spatial Dubin model
Based on the carbon emission and socio-economic panel data of counties in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2010-2017,the Tapio decoupling model,expanded STIRPAT model and spatial Durbin model were used to conduct a comprehensive zoning based on the spatial autocorrelation and decoupling of carbon emissions,and reveal the key influencing factors.The results showed that:1)carbon emissions at the county level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei had significant spatial dependence,spatial spillover and spatial imbalance.At the county level,there were different types of carbon peaking in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,which could be divided into"dual carbon"high risk zone(40),"dual carbon"medium risk zone(65),"dual carbon"low risk zone(47)and"dual carbon"potential zone(46).It was more difficult for"dual carbon"high and medium risk zone to reach the carbon peak,which would be the"hard bone"that Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei would work together to promote the"dual carbon"target.2)The results of expanded STIRPAT model and spatial Durbin model showed that there were significant differences in the influencing factors of different types of carbon peaking.For"dual carbon"high risk zone,urbanization level and greening level had significant direct positive effects on carbon emission intensity.For the"dual carbon"medium risk zone,the degree of foreign trade openness had a significant direct positive effect on carbon emission intensity.For the"dual carbon"low risk zone,social affluence level and tertiary industry development level had significant direct negative effects on carbon emission intensity.For the"dual carbon"risk potential zone,the degree of foreign trade openness,greening level and industrial structure had a significant direct positive effect on carbon emission intensity.According to the carbon emission risk in different counties,it is urgent to implement the carbon emission control strategy with classified guidance.
carbon emissionsdecoupling modelcarbon peakinginfluencing factorsBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei county region
万方数据
维普
