受人类活动干扰及气候变化等影响，大量外来鱼类进入阿勒泰地区的主要河流中，严重干扰甚至威胁到流域生态安全。基于阿勒泰地区 2022-2023 年鲤(Cyprinus carpio)、东方欧鳊(Abramis bra ma orientalis)、麦穗鱼(P seudorasbora parva)3种外来鱼类野外调查采样数据和24个环境因子数据，利用Biomod2包构建研究区生境适宜性集合模型，模拟分析3种外来鱼类在当前时期及2050年多气候情景模式下的时空分布格局。结果表明:1)区域生境适宜性集合模型与单模型相比具有更好适用性，模拟结果可信度、稳定性突出;2)当前时期，麦穗鱼广泛分布于阿勒泰地区各水系，鲤及东方欧鳊相对集中交叉分布于哈巴河县与布尔津县境内的额尔齐斯河流域及乌伦古湖流域，麦穗鱼、鲤及东方欧鳊的潜在分布区分别占流域总面积85。93％、52。48％和28。33％;3)未来气候情景下，鲤适宜性分布范围大幅下降、东方欧鳊适宜性分布范围大幅扩张、麦穗鱼保持相对稳定。研究结果可为研究区域外来鱼类早期主动防控预警及中长期生态监测提供参考。
Spatiotemporal distribution patterns of Cyprinus carpio,Abramis brama orientalis and Pseudorasbora parva in Altay under the influence of climate change
Anthropogenic activities and climate change have led to an influx of invasive fish species into the main rivers of the Altay Prefecture,which has severely disrupted and threatened the ecological security of these watersheds.The Biomod2 package was used to construct an ensemble model of optimal habitat suitability in the study area.Based on field survey sampling data of three invasive fish species(Cyprinus carpio,Abramis brama orientalis and Pseudorasbora parva)in 2022-2023,along with data from 24 climate and environmental factors,the model simulated the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of these three invasive fish species under current conditions and various climate scenarios for 2050.The results showed that:1)the regional habitat suitability ensemble model demonstrated better applicability compared to single models,with the simulation results showing enhanced credibility and stability;2)during the study period,Pseudorasbora parva were widely distributed in the water systems of the Altay region,while Cyprinus carpio and Abramis brama orientalis were relatively concentrated and cross-distributed in the Irtysh River Basin and the Ulungur Lake Basin within the territories of Habahe County and Burqin County.The suitable distribution ranges of Pseudorasbora parva,Cyprinus carpio and Abramis brama orientalis accounting for 85.93％,52.48％and 28.33％of the study area,respectively;3)under future climate scenarios,the suitable distribution range for Cyprinus carpio would significantly decrease,for Abramis brama orientalis would significantly expand,and for Pseudorasbora parva would remain relatively stable.The results of this study could provide a reference for the early proactive prevention and control of invasive fish species in the study area,as well as for the ecological monitoring in the medium and long term.
Cyprinus carpioAbramis brama orientalisPseudorasbora parvaspecies distribution modelspatial distributionclimate change
万方数据
维普
