二氧化碳(carbon dioxide,CO2)捕集、利用与封存(CO2 capture,utilization and storage,CCUS)是实现碳中和目标不可或缺的关键技术.CO2地质封存与利用作为CCUS技术的核心组成部分,面临着政策、技术、经济、安全等风险问题,对项目的风险分析与评价能够降低不确定性对项目规划的影响,是实现项目顺利推进的有效保障.由于项目内部及外部环境的不确定因素多种多样,而且随着项目生命期的渐进,又会产生新的风险,风险反复发生的频率以及参与的各项目过程也会因项目而异,因此风险识别作为风险评价过程的第一步,是进行全面风险评价的重要前提.风险识别的目标是明确与项目有关的潜在风险源,在识别过程中,评估人员需要识别包括地质安全性、环境影响、人类健康、政策和社会因素等多种潜在的风险事件和类型,并评估风险的概率和影响.目前,国内外在CO2地质封存工程的风险识别环节中已开展德尔菲法、头脑风暴法、专家面谈法、风险清单法、SWOT技术、风险分解结构、风险图解分析技术等多种分析方法.每种风险识别方法都有各自的优势和劣势,同一项目可能选择多种风险识别方法进行项目风险的前期排查.然而,当前已有研究大多是针对单一方法的介绍和应用,缺少对多种不同风险识别方法的系统介绍和对比,尚未形成完整的风险识别理论框架体系以及筛选方法.在全面综述CO2地质封存风险识别现状、风险识别方法与应用的基础上,对多种风险识别方法进行了优缺点总结以及对比,提出了一种纺锤形风险识别筛选方法.最后,对宁夏回族自治区试注工程进行风险识别,以期指导封存项目风险管理,助力项目顺利开展,为未来宁夏开展大规模CCUS示范工程项目提供重要参考.
CO2 geological storage risk identification:Methods and application
Carbon dioxide(CO2)capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)represents a critical technology in the pursuit of global carbon neutrality.As a core component of CCUS technology,CO2 geological storage and utilization offer a viable means of achieving large-scale carbon removal in the near future.The impact on project concept serves as an effective guarantee for the realization of the project concept.Due to the various uncertain factors in the internal and external environment of the project,and with the gradual progress of the project life cycle,new risks will emerge.The frequency of risk recurrence and the various project processes involved will also vary depending on the project.Therefore,risk identification as the first step in the risk evaluation process is an important prerequisite for comprehensive risk evaluation.The goal of risk identification is to identify potential risk sources related to the project.During the identification process,evaluators need to identify various potential risk events and types including geological safety,environmental impact,human health,policy,and social factors,and evaluate the probability and impact of risks.Currently,various analytical methods,including the Delphi method,brainstorming,expert interviews,risk inventory analysis,SWOT technique,risk decomposition structure,and risk graphical analysis technique have been employed both domestically and internationally in the risk identification of CO2 geological storage projects.Each risk identification method has its own advantages and disadvantages.The same project may choose multiple risk identification methods for preliminary investigation of project risks.However,most current research focuses on introducing and applying single methods only.There is a lack of systematic introduction and comparison of multiple different risk identification methods that have not yet been integrated into a complete theoretical framework system for risk identification.Based on a comprehensive review of current risk identification practices,methods,and applications for CO2 geological storage,a comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of various risk identification methods was provided.The risk inventory method was applied to identify risks for the test injection and conceptual project in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region to guide risk management for the storage project,facilitating its smooth development,and providing an important reference for future large-scale CCUS projects in Ningxia.
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