Spatiotemporal characteristics and health risk of PM10 exposure and non-accidental deaths in Zibo,Shandong province
Objective To know the excessive risk of non-accidental death caused by PM10 in Zibo city.Methods The daily non-accidental death data,monitoring data of meteorological and air pollution in Zibo during 2017-2019 were collected.Generalized additive model(GAM)based on the Poisson distribution was used for time series analysis,and the risk of excess death was assessed.Results With an annual decline,the average annual concentration of PM10 in Zibo from 2017 to 2019 was 112.07 μg/m3.There were an average of 79 non-accidental deaths per day.The risk of non-accidental death increased with the increase of PM10 concentration.The annual average concentration of PM10 and non-accidental deaths overall showed the consistent spatial distribution characteristics with high in the central city and low in the peripheral districts and counties.When the PM2.5,increased by 10 μg/m3,the excess risk(ER)of non-accidental death was 0.36％(95％C/:0.18％-0.54％).When the reference concentrations were 150 μg/m3 and 70 μg/m3,the total number of non-accidental excess deaths attributable to PM10 from 2017 to 2019 were 380 and 1 504,respectively.With the PM10 concentration(105 μg/m3)in 2019 as the reference concentration,324 non-accidental deaths could be avoided due to the reduction of PM10 concentration from 2017 to 2019.Conclusions PM10 exposure may lead to an increase in non-accidental death risk,and reduction of PM10 concentration may decrease the risk of excess death year by year.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
