Correlation of lung cancer incidence with air pollution in Haikou and Urumqi from 2015 to 2021:a time series analysis
Objective To understand the correlation between air pollutants and lung cancer in Haikou and Urumqi,and the lag effect of air pollutants on lung cancer.Methods The data of fine particles(PM2.5),inhalable particles(PM10),NO2,SO2,CO and ozone daily maximum 8 h average concentration(O34 h),meteorological factors and lung cancer incidence in Haikou and Urumqi from January 1,2015 to December 31,2021 were collected.The generalized additive Poisson regression model of time series was used to control the influence of long-term trend,meteorological factors and day of week effect,and the correlation between air pollutants and lung cancer in single-pollutant model and double-pollutant model was quantitatively analyzed.Results In the single-pollutant model,the excess risk(ER)of daily incidence of lung cancer caused by every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10 in Haikou was the largest on the lag day,which was 6.33％(95％CI:2.29％-10.53％).The maximum effect value of SO2 was 41.82％(95％C/:3.19％-94.91％)at lag6,the maximum effect value of NO2 was 18.43％(95％CI:7.97％-29.89％)at lag6,and the maximum effect value of CO was on the lag day.The ER was 80.08％(95％CI:20.53％-169.06％)for every 1 mg/m3 increase in lung cancer incidence.The effect values of PM10,NO2 and CO exposure on the daily incidence of lung cancer in Urumqi were the largest in lag02,lag04 and lag02,with ER values of 1.30％(95％C/:0.56％-2.05％),15.40％(95％CI:8.33％-22.94％)and 23.84％(95％C/:7.29％-42.94％),respectively.In the two-pollutant model,the effect value of CO disappeared after the introduction of PM10 in Haikou City,while the effect of PM10,SO2,NO2 and CO on lung cancer incidence remained statistically significant after the introduction of the other pollutants,respectively,and the effect of PM10,NO2 and CO on lung cancer incidence remained statistically significant after adjusting for the other pollutants,respectively,in Urumqi City.Conclusion Exposure to air pollutants can lead to an increase in the risk of lung cancer in local residents.This risk is different in different cities and different lag days.
Air pollutantsLung cancerTime series analysisGeneralized additive model
万方数据
维普
