首页|南京市大气二氧化氮浓度与活动性结核病发病的时间序列分析

南京市大气二氧化氮浓度与活动性结核病发病的时间序列分析

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目的 探讨南京市大气二氧化氮(NO2)浓度与人群活动性结核病发病的关系.方法 收集南京市2016年1月1日至2020年12月31日人群活动性结核病报告病例数及大气细颗粒物(PM2.5)、可吸入颗粒物(PM10)、二氧化氮(NO2)、二氧化硫(SO2)、臭氧(O3)、一氧化碳(CO)及气象因素(包括温度、相对湿度)资料,采用时间序列方法分析大气NO2浓度与人群每周活动性结核病发病的关系及滞后效应,并对年龄、性别分层探讨其效应.结果 在单污染物模型中,累积滞后3周效应量最大,即大气NO2每升高10 μg/m3,人群活动性结核病发病风险增加12.57%(95%CI:4.72%~21.01%).分层分析结果显示,≥65岁组和<65岁组人群活动性结核病发病风险分别增加18.53%(95%CI:8.27%~29.77%)和10.49%(95%CI:2.37%~19.25%),男性和女性人群活动性结核病发病风险分别增加12.94%(95%CI:4.78%~21.74%)和11.80%(95%CI:2.07%~22.44%),可见分层后高年龄组和男性效应更大.在双污染物模型中,当分别纳入PM2.5、PM10、SO2、O3、CO后,大气NO2 每升高 10 µg/m3,人群活动性结核病发病风险分别增加 16.84%(95%CI:7.92%~26.50%)、17.74%(95%CI:8.33%~27.96%)、17.07%(95%CI:8.09%~26.80%)、12.09%(95%CI:4.25%~20.51%)及 14.25%(95%CI:5.60%~23.62%);除 O3 外,双污染物模型中的大气NO2效应均较单污染物模型增加,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01).结论 大气NO2污染可能增加人群活动性结核病发生风险,且对高年龄和男性人群的影响更明显.
Association between ambient NO2 exposure and active tuberculosis risk in Nanjing:a time-series study
Objective To know the association of ambient NO2 with the risk of active tuberculosis in Nanjing.Methods We collected fine particles(PM2.3),crude particles(PM10),nitrogen dioxide(NO2),sulfur dioxide(SO2),ozone(O3),carbon monoxide(CO),meteorological factors(including temperature and relative humidity)and active TB case reports from the TB surveillance system.Time-series analysis was used to assess the effect of ambient NO2 on the weekly occurrence of active TB,and the effects of different age(under 65,over 65)and gender(male,female)on the risk of active TB were investigated by stratified analysis.Results In single-pollutant model,a 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 was associated with a maximum cumulative lag effect of 12.57%(95%CI:4.72%-21.01%,lag0-3 weeks)increase in active TB,after stratification,the risk of active tuberculosis increased by 18.53%(95%CI:8.27%-29.77%)and 10.49%(95%CI:2.37%-19.25%)in the elderly and young group respectively,and the risk of active tuberculosis increased by 12.94%(95%CI:4.78%-21.74%)and 11.80%(95%CI:2.07%-22.44%)in the male and female group respectively,thus,elderly people and male were more susceptible to NO2 exposure.In multi-pollutant model,when PM2.5,PM10,SO2,O3,and CO were included separately,each 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 was associated with 16.84%(95%CI:7.92%-26.50%),17.74%(95%CI:8.33%-27.96%),17.07%(95%CI:8.09%-26.80%),17.07%(95%CI:8.09%-26.80%),and 12.09%(95%CI:4.25%-20.51%)and 14.25%(95%CI:5.60%-23.62%),and the effect was increased in the multi-pollutant model compared to the single-pollutant model except for O3(P<0.01).Conclusion This study suggests that exposure to NO2 is associated with the incidence of active TB,and may have a greater impact on the elders and males.

Nitrogen dioxide(NO2)TuberculosisTime series

杨晨、江燕、王荣、李晨、张洪英

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南京市疾病预防控制中心慢性传染病防制科,江苏 210003

二氧化氮 结核病 时间序列

中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生领域卫生健康标准评估南京市卫健委重点项目南京市卫健委重点项目

中疾控标准便函[2021]517号ZKX17049ZKX19048

2024

环境与健康杂志
中华预防医学会,天津市疾病预防控制中心

环境与健康杂志

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.658
ISSN:1001-5914
年,卷(期):2024.41(6)