Impact of meteorological factor interaction on influenza based on GAM model in Yinchuan
Objective To understand the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of influenza in Yinchuan.Methods The daily influenza like cases(ILI cases)and meteorological data from 2005 to 2021 in Yinchuan were collected,and Spearman correlation analysis and generalized additive models(GAM)were used to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on changes in ILI cases.Results There was a significant correlation between the number of ILI cases and the daily average temperature,pressure,relative humidity,wind speed,precipitation and sunshine hours within a week in Yinchuan.In the GAM model with a single influencing factor,all of the above meteorological factors significantly affected the change in ILI cases at the 0.001 reliability level.However,the fitting results of the GAM model with multiple influencing factors showed that the four factors of air pressure,temperature,relative humidity and sunshine hours passed the significance test,the adjusted judgment coefficient of the model was 0.585,and the variance explanation rate was 60.4％,the fitting degree was higher than the fitting effect of a single meteorological factor on the change in ILI cases,demonstrated that the changes in the number of ILI cases were influenced by multiple meteorological factors.By combining three-dimensional visualization graphics to visually analyze the impact characteristics of the interaction between four main meteorological factors on the number of ILI cases,it was found that temperature was the dominant meteorological factor affecting the incidence of influenza.When the daily average temperature was below 12 ℃,the risk of influenza increased as the temperature decreased,while when the daily average temperature was above 12 ℃,there was no impact on influenza incidence.Conclusion Temperature is a key meteorological factor for the incidence of influenza in Yinchuan.
InfluenzaMeteorological factorsSpearman correlation analysisGeneralized additive model
万方数据
维普
