空气污染物对杭州市非意外死亡人群预期寿命影响研究
Potential gains in life expectancy from attaining ambient pollution standards in Hangzhou,China
李莉 1周筱丛 2吕烨 1李朝康 1徐珊珊 1程可意 1徐虹1
作者信息
- 1. 杭州市疾病预防控制中心(杭州市卫生监督所),浙江 杭州 310021
- 2. 浙江中医药大学公共卫生学院
- 折叠
摘要
目的 评估2014-2018年杭州市空气污染物达到特定标准时,非意外死亡人群所获得的预期寿命潜在增益(Potential Gain In Life Expectancy,PGLE).方法 收集杭州市2014-2018年空气环境质量数据、气象数据和人群死亡数据.采用广义相加模型(Generalized Additive Model,GAM)评估每日空气污染物暴露对非意外死亡寿命损失年数(Years Of Life Lost,YLL)的影响.假设每日空气污染物浓度分别下降至我国和世界卫生组织的空气质量标准,估算人群YLL、归因分数(Attribution Fraction,AF)和PGLE.结果 研究期间,杭州市共有167 086例非意外死亡.PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2和O3与YLL之间存在2 d的滞后相关性(即lag2).若杭州市空气中PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2和O3浓度分别降低至WHO的空气质量准则(Air Quality Standards,AQG),居民的 PGLE(x10-2)将对应增加 7.13、5.79、0.10、10.20 和 3.40 年.结论 降低环境空气污染物浓度可延长人群预期寿命,为控制和减少不同污染物以改善空气质量和保护人群健康提供科学依据.
Abstract
Objective To understand the potential gain in life expectancy(PGLE)of the non-accidental death population in Hangzhou when air pollutants reached specific standards from 2014 to 2018.Methods The air environmental quality data,meteorological data and population mortality data were collected from 2014 to 2018 in Hangzhou.Generalized Additive Model(GAM)was used to assess the effect of daily air pollutant exposure on Years of Life Lost(YLL)for non-accidental deaths.Population YLL,Attribution Fraction(AF)and PGLE were estimated assuming that daily air pollutant concentrations decreased to the air quality standards of China and the World Health Organization,respectively.Results There were 167 086 non-accidental deaths in HCM City during this period.There was a 2-day lagged correlation between PM2.5,PM10,SO2,NO2,and O3 and YLL.In addition,if the concentrations of PM2.5,PM10,SO2,NO2,and O3 in the air of HCM City were reduced to the WHO's Air Quality Standards(AQG),respectively,the PGLE(x10-2)of the inhabitants would correspondingly increase by 7.13 years,5.79 years,0.10 years,10.20 years and 3.40 years.Conclusion The present study shows that reducing ambient air pollutant concentrations can significantly increase the life expectancy of the population,and the results will provide the scientific basis for controlling and reducing different pollutants to improve air quality and protect the health of the population.
关键词
空气污染/非意外死亡/预期寿命潜在增益/广义相加模型Key words
Air pollution/Non-accidental deaths/Potential gain in life expectancy/Generalized additive models引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据