基于因果推理的机场网络延误传播分析

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中文摘要：随着航空运输的快速发展,航班延误问题日益严重,已成为制约我国民航发展的重要瓶颈之一.为了更好地理解航班延误传播机理,从延误传播本质出发,采用收敛交叉映射的因果推理方法检验各机场在延误传播过程中的因果关系,并定义延误因果指数,构建延误因果时空网络,基于复杂网络理论分析网络特性.选取 2019 年 7月的国内航班运行数据进行验证,实验结果表明,每个机场影响或受 21 个机场影响,意味着航空运输系统存在广泛的延误传播关系,特别是中小机场之间存在的因果关系更强,因此在注重大型国际枢纽机场航班延误治理的同时,也不能忽视中小机场延误治理能力的提高.

外文标题：Analysis of Airport Network Delay Propagation Based on Causal Inference

外文摘要：With the rapid development of air transport,the problem of flight delays has become increasing-ly serious,which has become one of the important bottlenecks restricting the development of China's civil aviation.In order to better understand the propagation mechanism of flight delay,starting from the essence of delay propagation,the convergent cross-mapping is used to test the causal relationship between airports in the process of delay propagation,the delay causal index is defined,the delay causal spatiotemporal net-work is constructed,and the network characteristics are analyzed based on the complex network theory.Domestic flight operation data of July 2019 was selected for verification,the experimental results show that each airport affects or is affected by 21 airports,which means that there is a wide delay propagation rela-tionship in the air transport system,especially the causal relationships between small and medium-sized airports are stronger,so while paying attention to the flight delay governance of large international hub air-ports,we cannot ignore the improvement of the delay management capacity of small and medium-sized airports.

外文关键词：

delay propagationconvergent cross mappingcausalitydelayed causal spatiotemporal net-workscomplex networks

作者：

李千千、田勇、孙梦圆、李江晨

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作者单位：

南京航空航天大学,江苏南京 211000

关键词：

延误传播收敛交叉映射因果关系延误因果时空网络复杂网络

基金：

江苏省青年基金项目资助江苏省双创博士人才项目资助2024年江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划2024年南京航空航天大学博士学位论文创新与创优基金

项目编号：

BK20230892JSSCBS20220212KYCX24_0600BCXJ24-16

出版年：

2024

航空计算技术

中国航空工业西安航空计算技术研究所

航空计算技术

CSTPCD

影响因子：0.316

ISSN：1671-654X

年,卷(期)：2024.54(4)