Impact of External Shocks on the Hog Prices Fluctuation in China——A Case of Pig Epidemics
Due to the frequent occurrence of external shock events in recent years,the market price of the hog in China has fluctuated drastically several times,which has a great impact on the interests of producers and consumers and has caused widespread concern.Taking pig epidemics in China as a case,the dynamic relationship between pig epidemics shocks and hog prices was analyzed by VAR model using the monthly data related to hog prices collected from February 2009 to December 2020.The results showed that there were obvious differences between the impact of segment prices in the hog industry chain and the epidemic on the hog price fluctuation.The impact of the epidemic on the hog price showed a law of first negative and then positive.The contribution of pig epidemic to hog price fluctuation increased significantly after the lag period was 4.Based on this,countermeasures were put forward from three aspects:strengthening the construction of the pig epidemic prevention and control system,improving the monitoring and early warning mechanism,and strengthening the role of the government in restraining the large fluctuations of the hog price.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
