黑龙江科学2024,Vol.15Issue(10) :110-113,116.

基于改进一次二阶矩方法的油气管道失效概率研究

Failure Probability of Oil and Gas Pipeline Based on Improved First Order Second Moment Method

吴一林 王慧平
黑龙江科学2024,Vol.15Issue(10) :110-113,116.

基于改进一次二阶矩方法的油气管道失效概率研究

Failure Probability of Oil and Gas Pipeline Based on Improved First Order Second Moment Method

吴一林 1王慧平2
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作者信息

  • 1. 青海大学 土木水利学院,西宁 810016
  • 2. 江西理工大学 土木与测绘工程学院,江西 赣州 341000
  • 折叠

摘要

油气管道在运行过程中存在诸多不确定性因素,采用改进的一次二阶矩计算方法,依据最大剪应力强度理论和管道工程设计规范,建立了油气管道的失效功能函数,提出了管道可靠度和失效概率的计算方法.以西部某段原油输送管道为例,研究了随机变量管道直径、壁厚、运行压力、运行温差的平均值与标准差对失效概率的影响,为油气管道的可靠性设计及风险评估提供一定的借鉴.

Abstract

There are various uncertain factors in the operation of oil and gas pipelines.Based on the maximum principal shear stress theory and design specifications of pipeline,the study establishes the failure function of oil and gas pipeline with the improved first order second moment method,and proposes a method for calculating pipeline reliability and failure probability.Through taking a crude oil pipeline in western China as an example,the study analyzes the influence of average and standard deviation of pipeline variables,such as pipeline diameter,wall thickness,operating pressure and difference of operating temperature,so as to provide some reference for the reliability design and risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines.

关键词

油气管道/失效功能函数/失效概率/改进一次二阶矩法

Key words

Oil and gas pipelines/Failure function/Failure probability/Improved first order second moment method

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出版年

2024
黑龙江科学
黑龙江省科学院

黑龙江科学

影响因子:1.014
ISSN:1674-8646
参考文献量11
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