In this study,the daily rainfall and historical landslide data from 2014 to 2019 were used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of landslide and rainfall in Muli Tibetan Autonomous County,Sichuan Province.The study conducted the concept of effective rainfall,established a scatter plot of effective rainfall intensity-rainfall duration,and obtained the threshold equation.Logistic prediction model was established with historical data,and the model was validated by ROC curve and new landslide events.The results show that landslides mostly occur in summer and along the river.The occurrence of landslides was mostly correlated with the rainfall in the previous five days.The prediction accuracy of the logistic regression model in the sample data was 90.4%,and the prediction probability of new landslide events was between 70%and 80%.The system developed based on ArcEngine and C#has functions,such as data processing,spatial analysis,and visual early warning.
关键词
滑坡概率/日降水量/Logistic回归模型/滑坡预警系统
Key words
Landslide probability/Daily precipitation/Logistic regression model/Landslide early warning system
维普
万方数据