黑龙江科学2024,Vol.15Issue(24) :38-41.

非常规水源推动下水资源价格系统动力学模型的构建——以宁夏地区为例

Construction of Price System Dynamics Model of Water Resources Under the Promotion of Unconventional Water Sources——Through Taking Ningxia Area as an Example

郑富玲 陈娴 韩莉 马玉宝
黑龙江科学2024,Vol.15Issue(24) :38-41.

非常规水源推动下水资源价格系统动力学模型的构建——以宁夏地区为例

Construction of Price System Dynamics Model of Water Resources Under the Promotion of Unconventional Water Sources——Through Taking Ningxia Area as an Example

郑富玲 1陈娴 2韩莉 1马玉宝1
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作者信息

  • 1. 银川能源学院,银川 750100
  • 2. 自治区水利工程定额和质量安全中心,银川 750004
  • 折叠

摘要

提出在非常规水源利用的推动下研究水资源定价,缓减水资源供需矛盾,利用系统动力学方法和vensim软件构建区域内水资源价格系统动力学模型,基于宁夏地区经济、社会、环境、生态确定时间范围和空间范围,分析影响水资源供水价格的各种因素,根据各因素之间的因果关系确定变量方程式,利用历史性数据做模型历史性检验和灵敏度分析.结果表明,模型通过历史性检验和灵敏度分析可用于后续的仿真模拟分析.

Abstract

The study analyzes the water resource pricing under the promotion of unconventional water sources utilization;reduces the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources;builds a system dynamics model of water resource price within the region with system dynamics method and vensim software;determines the time range and space range based on the economy,society,environment and ecology of Ningxia;and analyzes various factors affecting water supply price.According to the causal relationship between the factors,the study determines the variable equation,and conducts historical test and sensitivity analysis of the model with the historical data.The results show that the model can be used for subsequent simulation analysis through historical test and sensitivity analysis.

关键词

系统动力学/水资源/模型/水价

Key words

System dynamics/Water resources/Model/Water price

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出版年

2024
黑龙江科学
黑龙江省科学院

黑龙江科学

影响因子:1.014
ISSN:1674-8646
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