黑龙江科学2024,Vol.15Issue(24) :68-70.

基于Kendall模型对三峡库区农业污染及影响因素的分析

Analysis of Agricultural Pollution and its Influencing Factors in Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Kendall Model

张怡 欧升阳 林东琪 陶李路路 周忠元
黑龙江科学2024,Vol.15Issue(24) :68-70.

基于Kendall模型对三峡库区农业污染及影响因素的分析

Analysis of Agricultural Pollution and its Influencing Factors in Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Kendall Model

张怡 1欧升阳 1林东琪 1陶李路路 1周忠元1
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作者信息

  • 1. 重庆三峡学院机械工程学院,重庆 404000
  • 折叠

摘要

以三峡库区26区县为研究对象,对2011-2021年库区农业时空分布进行分析,采用ArcGIS进行空间可视化,建立灰色关联模型,对三峡地区农业污染及影响因素进行分析.三峡库区2011-2021年农用化肥施用量呈现先增后减的变化趋势,猪出栏量整体呈下降趋势,禽出栏量、禽蛋产量整体呈上升趋势,农药使用量整体呈递减趋势,农业生产总值呈增长趋势,农村人口逐年递减.对2011-2021年三峡库区农业面源污染物影响因素进行分析,农村人口对农业面源污染的影响度最大,关联度最高为0.858,其后依次是农作物播种面积、粮经比、农业总产值、农林牧副渔,其关联度由大到小分别是0.852、0.702、0.556、0.555,可知农林牧副渔总产值对农业面源污染的影响最小.三峡库区10年间的污染量总体呈递减趋势,农业生产总值呈增长趋势.就关联度而言,农业人口对农业面源污染的影响度最大,农林牧副渔对农业面源污染的影响最小.

Abstract

Through taking 26 districts and counties in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as the research objects,the study analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution of agriculture in the reservoir area from 2011 to 2021,uses ArcGIS for spatial visualization,and analyzes agricultural pollution and its influencing factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area with grey correlation model.From 2011 to 2021,the amount of agricultural fertilizer applied in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area showed a change trend of first increase and then decrease,the overall number of pig production showed a trend of decline,the overall number of poultry production and poultry egg production showed a trend of increase,the overall use of pesticides showed a trend of decline,the total agricultural product showed a trend of growth,and the rural population decreased year by year.According to the analysis of the influencing factors of agricultural non-point source pollutants in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 2011 to 2021,the rural population has the greatest impact on agricultural non-point source pollution,and the highest correlation degree is 0.858,followed by crop sown area,ratio of grain to economy,total agricultural output value,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery.The correlation degree is 0.852,0.702,0.556 and 0.555,respectively.This shows that the total output value of agriculture,forestry,livestock,and fishery has the least influence on agricultural non-point source pollution.In terms of correlation degree,agricultural population has the greatest impact on agricultural non-point source pollution.Agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery have the least impact on agricultural non-point source pollution.

关键词

三峡库区/空间可视化/灰色关联模型/影响因素

Key words

Three Gorges Reservoir Area/Spatial visualization/Grey correlation model/Influencing factor

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出版年

2024
黑龙江科学
黑龙江省科学院

黑龙江科学

影响因子:1.014
ISSN:1674-8646
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