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基于耦合模型的九寨沟地震滑坡危险性对比研究

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以九寨沟地震极震区为研究区,基于4834处地震滑坡数据,选择坡度、坡向、起伏度、高程、发震断层距、震中距、地层岩性、河流距和道路距9个因子作为地震滑坡危险性评价因子,采用确定性系数-逻辑回归模型(CF-LR)、信息量-逻辑回归模型(I-LR)、确定性系数-随机森林模型(CF-RF)和信息量-随机森林模型(I-RF)4种耦合模型开展地震滑坡危险性评价,利用频率比和接受者操作特性曲线(ROC)对4种耦合模型精度进行对比分析.结果表明,4种耦合模型的地震滑坡危险性等级频率比值随着滑坡危险性等级的提高而明显增大,极高危险性和高危险区频率比占总频率比均超过85%,CF-LR模型、I-LR模型、CF-RF模型和I-RF模型的AUC值分别为0.877、0.879、0.903和0.905,表明4种组合模型均能准确地评价九寨沟地震滑坡危险性.将CF模型或I模型分别与LR模型及RF模型耦合,RF耦合模型比LR耦合模型精度提高了 2.6%,表明RF模型在解决非线性关系的问题上更具优势,这一成果可为该地区灾害风险评价和防灾减灾规划提供参考.
Comparative Study on Hazard Assessment of Earthquake-triggered Landslides Based on Coupling Model
The study takes extreme earthquake area of Jiuzhaigou earthquake as the research area.Based on data from 4834 earthquake landslides,we select 9 factors as the risk evaluation factors of earthquake landslide:slope gradient,slope direction,topographic relief,elevation,distance to fault,epicenter distance,stratum lithology,distance to river and distance to road.4 coupling models of certainty factor:logistic regression model(CF-LR),information value-logistic regression model(I-LR),certainty factor-random forest model(CF-RF)and information value-random forest model(I-RF),are used to evaluate the seismic landslide risk in the study area.The accuracy of the four combined models is compared and analyzed by using frequency ratio and receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC).The results show that the frequency ratio of seismic landslide risk grade of the 4 combined models increases significantly with the increase of landslide risk grade,and the frequency ratio of extremely high risk and high risk area accounts for more than 85%of the total frequency ratio.The AUC values of CF-LR model,I-LR model,CF-RF model and I-RF model are 0.877,0.879,0.903 and 0.905,respectively,indicating that the 4 combined models can accurately evaluate the risk of Jiuzhaigou earthquake landslide.Coupling CF model or I model with LR model and RF model respectively,the accuracy of RF coupling model is improved by 2.6%compared with LR coupling model,indicating that RF model has more advantages in solving the problem of nonlinear relationship.This result can provide reference for disaster risk assessment and disaster prevention and reduction planning in this area.

Landslide riskLogistic regression modelRandom forest modelCoupling modelJiuzhaigou earthquak

郑志成、郭红梅、赵真、张莹

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达州职业技术学院智能建造学院,四川达州 635000

四川省地震局震灾风险防治中心,成都 610041

滑坡危险性 逻辑回归模型 随机森林模型 耦合模型 九寨沟地震

2025

黑龙江科学
黑龙江省科学院

黑龙江科学

影响因子:1.014
ISSN:1674-8646
年,卷(期):2025.16(2)