Verification and Evaluation of CFSv2 for Precipitation Prediction during the Extended Period of Flood Season in Heilongjiang Province
Based on the CFSv2 model data from 1999 to 2010,the trend and process of precipitation in the ex-tended period of flood season in Heilongjiang Province were tested and evaluated based on the Ps and Cs test methods of the National Climate Center.The results showed that the model had a poor prediction effect on the precipitation trend during the extended period of June,but the model's prediction skills improved significantly from early July to mid August.The Ps score was basically 65 points,and the consistency rate of anomaly symbols reached more than 50%.The model predicts the extension period precipitation process with good results in early June,early July,late July,and mid August,with an accuracy of over 20%for predicting precipitation days.The prediction conclusion can provide a reference for the extended period precipitation prediction in the business.
Heilongjiang provinceExtension forecastModel test evaluation
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
