CFSv2模式对汛期黑龙江省延伸期时段降水预测检验评估
Verification and Evaluation of CFSv2 for Precipitation Prediction during the Extended Period of Flood Season in Heilongjiang Province
班晋 1王营 1李永生 1赵佳莹 1马舒扬 1宋成玉 1王昊1
作者信息
- 1. 黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030
- 折叠
摘要
利用 1999-2010 年CFSv2 模式资料,基于国家气候中心Ps和Cs检验方法,对汛期黑龙江省延伸期时段降水趋势和过程进行检验评估.结果发现:模式预测 6 月延伸期降水趋势效果较差,但从 7 月上旬开始至 8 月中旬模式预测技巧明显提高,Ps评分基本通过 65 分,距平符号一致率也达到 50%以上.模式预测延伸期降水过程效果较好的时间为 6 月上旬、7 月上旬、7 月下旬和 8月中旬,预测降水日数准确率在 20%以上.预测结论可以为业务中延伸期降水预测提供参考依据.
Abstract
Based on the CFSv2 model data from 1999 to 2010,the trend and process of precipitation in the ex-tended period of flood season in Heilongjiang Province were tested and evaluated based on the Ps and Cs test methods of the National Climate Center.The results showed that the model had a poor prediction effect on the precipitation trend during the extended period of June,but the model's prediction skills improved significantly from early July to mid August.The Ps score was basically 65 points,and the consistency rate of anomaly symbols reached more than 50%.The model predicts the extension period precipitation process with good results in early June,early July,late July,and mid August,with an accuracy of over 20%for predicting precipitation days.The prediction conclusion can provide a reference for the extended period precipitation prediction in the business.
关键词
黑龙江省/延伸期预测/模式检验评估Key words
Heilongjiang province/Extension forecast/Model test evaluation引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据