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黑龙江省极端降水时空分布特征

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采用气候倾向率、百分位法、相关分析等方法,利用GIS空间插值技术,分析了黑龙江省1991-2020 年 6 个极端降水指数(最大 1d降水量(RX1day)、最大 5d降水量(RX5day)、连续干旱日数(CDD)、连续湿润日数(CWD)、强降水量(R95)和极端降水量(R99))的时空变化特征,并分析了各指数与年降水量间的相关性.结果表明:黑龙江省近 30 aRX1day、RX5day、R95 和R99 在松嫩平原地区最高,在大兴安岭地区和东南山区最低.6 种指数均呈上升趋势,R95 变化速率最大,达到30.48 mm/10a(p<0.05).各指数的变化存在空间差异,RX1day和RX5day空间变化特征相似.年降水量与大多数极端降水指数之间均表现为显著正相关,其中R95 与年降水量的相关性最好(p<0.01).本研究结果可为开展黑龙江省极端降水的生态风险评估提供重要参考,有利于提高气象防灾减灾和应对气候变化能力.
Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Extreme Precipitation in Heilongjiang Province
The spatial and temporal variations of six extreme precipitation indices were analyzed by using climatic propensity,percentile,and correlation analyses with GIS spatial interpolation in Heilongjiang Province from 1991 to 2020,and the correlation between the indices and the annual precipitation was also analyzed.The results show that the RX1day,RX5day,R95 and R99 in Heilongjiang province in the past 30 years are the highest in the Songnen Plain area,and the lowest in the Daxing'anling and Southeast Mountain areas.The six indices show an increasing trend,and the rate of change of R95 is the largest,reaching 30.48 mm/10a(p<0.05).There were spa-tial differences in the changes of the indices,and the spatial changes of RX1day and RX5day were characterized similarly.Significant positive correlations were exhibited between annual precipitation and most of the extreme precipitation indices,with the best correlation between R95 and annual precipitation(p<0.01).The results of this study can provide an important reference for carrying out the ecological risk assessment of extreme precipitation in Heilongjiang Province,which is conducive to improving the meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation and the ability to cope with climate change.

Precipitation extremesSpatial and temporal variabilityHeilongjiang Province

关宁欣、刘长成、于晶、李萌、田若琳

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齐齐哈尔市气象局,黑龙江 齐齐哈尔 161005

极端降水 时空变化 黑龙江省

2024

黑龙江气象
黑龙江省气象学会

黑龙江气象

影响因子:0.161
ISSN:1002-252X
年,卷(期):2024.41(1)
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