Analysis of the Forecast Performance of MOS Temperature Forecast with Quasi-symmetric Mixed Training Period in Heilongjiang Province
The quasi-symmetrical mixed training period MOS method was applied to establish a grid point MOS temperature forecast in Heilongjiang Province,with the ECMWF high-resolution grid surface 2 m temperature forecast products as the forecast factor and the 2 m temperature land data from the CMA Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS-V2.0)as the forecast quantity.The forecast performance of grid point temperature with a 3-hour interval within 24 hour time was tested and analyzed.The results show that:the MOS forecast mean absolute er-ror is≤1.5℃;the accuracy of MOS forecasts is 84.1%in the summer half-year,which is 7.6%higher than ECMWF;the accuracy of MOS forecasts is 71.5%in the winter half-year,which is 18.3%higher than ECMWF;the forecast skill score is 14.2%in the summer half-year and 29.8%in the winter half-year.The MOS forecast results are better in the summer half-year,and the improvements of forecasting performance are better in the winter half-year.The MOS forecast results in the Large Khingan mountainous,Lesser Khingan and the South-eastern mountainous areas are not as good as in the plains,but the improvements of forecast performance are sig-nificantly better than the plains.
Quasi-symmetrical mixed training period MOS methodtemperatureECMWFCLDAS
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
