Structural Balance Sheet Deterioration and Its Macroeconomic Effects with Policy Co-integration
The post-pandemic recovery policy combination has provided robust support for the positive factors in China's macroeconomic performance.However,the current economic down-turn pressures remain prominent,with noticeable fluctuations in certain sectors.There is an urgent need for a theoretical explanation and macroeconomic policy response tailored to address these is-sues effectively.We have constructed an NK-DSGE model to explore the macroeconomic effects of structural balance sheet recessions and the corresponding policy co-integration issues.The re-search findings demonstrate that typical facts suggest the absence of an overall balance sheet re-cession in China,but there is evidence of a structural balance sheet recession.At the macroeco-nomic level,shocks from structural balance sheet recessions can lead to a prolonged economic downturn,even triggering debt deflation risks.At the microeconomic level,alleviating debt aver-sion in companies affected by balance sheet recessions and improving the financing constraints of normally operating companies can help mitigate the aforementioned impacts.Adjustment effect a-nalysis indicates that structural balance sheet recessions can inhibit the promoting effects of tech-nological advancement and demand expansion on output,but these inhibitory effects are limited in the presence of technological progress.To minimize welfare losses,fiscal policy should focus on the debt of recessionary enterprises,monetary policy should anchor the debt of highly constrained firms,and enhance policy responsiveness.Macroprudential policies should increase sensitivity to asset prices.The above conclusions provide insight into the macroeconomic dynamics resulting from microeconomic debt aversion and offer guidance for designing and implementing the appro-priate policy combinations.
万方数据
维普
