首页|基于AquaCrop模型的芝麻作物参数敏感性分析及模型适用性评价

基于AquaCrop模型的芝麻作物参数敏感性分析及模型适用性评价

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为探明AquaCrop模型芝麻作物参数校准方法,验证模型适用性,以2022-2023年试验数据为基础,通过查阅文献资料,确定芝麻参数初始值和取值范围,采用EFAST方法对AquaCrop模型53个作物参数进行全局敏感性分析、模拟结果的不确定分析并进行参数校准验证.结果表明,对各处理最大生物量均敏感的参数有27个,其中全局敏感性指数(TSi)均大于0.3的参数有CDM、CDSE、POFE、RSWT、PSENSP、PSTOSP、RSWB和ECSW;对各处理籽粒产量均敏感的参数有14个,其中TSi均大于0.2的参数有POHX、RSWT、CDSE、DMCON、PSTO和PSTOSP.校准验证过程中冠层覆盖度和地上部生物量模拟值和实测值决定系数(R2)分别介于0.875~0.954、0.951~0.970;标准均方根误差(NRMSE)分别介于11.5%~18.1%、18.9%~27.7%;纳什效率系数(NSE)分别介于0.873~0.940、0.930~0.959.籽粒产量模拟值与实测值相对误差介于0.03~0.07.本地化后的AquaCrop模型能够较好地模拟芝麻生长发育过程,可用于芝麻优化管理或未来产量预测.
Sensitivity Analysis and Applicability Evaluation of the AquaCrop Model for Sesame Crop Parameters
The objective is to enhance the calibration efficiency of the AquaCrop model for sesame crop parameters and verify the applicability of the model.The initial value and value range of sesame crop parameters were determined based on the experimental data(2022-2023)and related literatures.The EFAST method was used to perform global sensitivity analysis of 53 sesame crop parameters,uncertainty analysis of simulation results and parameters calibration validation.The results showed that 27 parameters were sensitive to the maximum biomass of each treatment,including CDM,CDSE,POFE,RSWT,PSENSP,PSTOSP,RSWB and ECSW with TSi above 0.3.And 14 parameters were sensitive to grain yield of each treatment,including POHX,RSWT,CDSE,DMCON,PSTO and PSTOSP with TSi higher than 0.2.The decision coefficient(R2)of simulated and measured canopy coverage and aboveground biomass ranged from 0.875 to 0.954 and 0.951 to 0.970,respectively.Futhermore,the normalized root mean square error(NRMSE)ranged from 11.5%to 18.1%and 18.9%to 27.7%,respectively.Meanwhile,the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients(NSE)were 0.873-0.940 and 0.930-0.959,respectively.The relative error between the simulated and measured values of yield was between 0.03 and 0.07.The localized AquaCrop model can better simulate the dynamic development process of sesame,which can be used to optimize sesame management and forecast future production.

SesameAquaCrop modelParameter sensitivityEFASTApplicability

李梦瑶、关皓月、张建涛、黄明、李丰、戎亚思、李友军、李国强

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河南科技大学 农学院,河南 洛阳 471023

河南省农业科学院 农业信息技术研究所/农业农村部黄淮海智慧农业技术重点实验室,河南 郑州 450002

河南省农业科学院 芝麻研究中心,河南 郑州 450002

芝麻 AquaCrop模型 参数敏感性 EFAST 适用性

河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)国家自然科学基金青年基金项目河南省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所科技创新领军人才培育项目

222102110117313012392021KJCX02

2024

河南农业科学
河南省农业科学院

河南农业科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.787
ISSN:1004-3268
年,卷(期):2024.53(7)
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