Forecast of the Scale of Demand for Basic Education Teachers towards 2035—Based on the BP Neural Network Model
Based on the changes in the scale of basic education teachers and their influencing factors from 2003 to 2021,the BP neural network model is used to predict the demand for basic education teachers and the shortage of teachers from 2023 to 2035,and it is found that the overall demand for basic education teachers shows a decreasing trend,among which the demand for teachers in pre-school education and primary school continues to decline,and the demand for teachers in junior high school and general high school in-creases first and then decreases.During this period,the demand for teachers will fluctuate greatly,and there will be a shortage or sur-plus of teachers in pre-school education and primary school,which puts forward higher requirements for the supply elasticity and adapta-bility of teacher resources.Based on the above findings,the management department should steadily deploy the enrollment plan of student teachers and promote the balance between teacher supply and demand,strengthen the integration and coordination within the ed-ucation system to promote the rational mobility of teachers,promote the emergence of new forms of social demand and encourage teach-ers to diversify their employment.
basic educationteacher needsshortage of teachersBP neural network model2035
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
