Regional Allocation of Carbon Emission Quotas in China under the Carbon Peak Target
The total national quota of carbon emissions under the peak scenario of 2030 is predicted using the extended STIRPAT model combined with the scenario analysis method in the first place.Then,based on the principles of fairness,efficiency,feasibility and sustainability,the index system of regional carbon is constructed from four dimensions:emission reduction capacity,pressure,po-tential,and responsibility,and the improved entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of carbon quota allocation.Finally,taking the total quota of carbon emissions predicted under the peak scenario in 2030 as the total amount of allocation,the provincial carbon quota is carried out,and the provincial carbon emission space is also analyzed.The results show that:①Only under the low-carbon development scenario may China achieve the strategic target of"peaking at a lower peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060";②Following the principle of comprehensive allocation,Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Hainan and Chongqing receive more quo-tas,while Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Hebei,Shandong,and Shanxi receive fewer quotas;③The future carbon emission space of the whole country is slightly surplus,with differences among provinces.Shandong,Shanxi,Hebei,Inner Mongolia have serious carbon e-mission deficits,and Hainan,Beijing,Chongqing,Tianjin have surpluses in carbon emissions.
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