Spillover Effects of Carbon Emission Trading in the Context of"Carbon Neutrality"—"Structure Transformation"or"Innovation Compensation"
Under the policy objectives of"carbon peak"and"carbon neutrality",how to give full play to the emission reduction effect of China's carbon emission trading policy has become an important proposition.Based on the sample panel data of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2020,this article builds difference-in-difference model and space Durbin model,analyzing the reduction effect of the pilot carbon emission trading policy in China and spatial spillover effect,and further designs space mediation model,testing the spatial me-diation effect of areas energy structure and green innovation.The results show that,firstly,the pilot carbon emission trading policy in China has significant emission reduction effect and spatial spillover effect,and the spatial spillover effect is about 72.62%stronger than the direct emission reduction effect on average.Secondly,the spatial mediation effect of regional energy structure exists.China's car-bon emission trading pilot policy can optimize the energy structure of the pilot area and its adjacent area,and then suppress the carbon emissions of the pilot area and its adjacent area.Thirdly,regional green innovation has a non-spatial mediation effect.China's carbon emission trading pilot policy can improve the level of green innovation in pilot areas,and there is a significant inverted U-shaped rela-tionship between regional green innovation and local carbon emissions.Finally,regional energy structure transformation is the main channel for China's carbon emission trading pilot policy to play the role of emission reduction,and the inverted U-shaped relationship between regional green innovation and carbon emission level determines that green innovation will generate stronger emission reduction motivation in the long term.Therefore,while fully estimating the carbon emission reduction effect of China's carbon emission trading policy on pilot areas,attention should also be paid to the spatial agglomeration characteristics and spatial spillover effect of regional car-bon emissions and the synergistic emission reduction effect of policies should be strengthened.All regions should develop clean energy and strengthen investment in green technology innovation,so as to give full play to the dual effects of carbon emission reduction and spatial spillover effect of policies.
carbon emission tradingcarbon emissionsenergy structuregreen innovationspatial Durbin model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
