Risk of Ischemic Stroke in 1 623 Patients Over 40 Years Old and Construction of Prediction Model
Objective To investigate the risk status of cerebral ischemic stroke(CIS)in1 623 patients over 40 years old,and to construct a prediction model.Methods There were 1 623 patients over 40 years old from January 2015 to January 2020 were selected by random sampling method as subjects.Questionnaire survey,physical examination and laboratory examination were conducted to investigate.Clinical data of the two groups were compared according to whether they had CIS.The risk factors of CIS were analyzed by logistic multivariate regression model,and the predictive value of CIS in people over 40 years old was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results A total of 1623 patients over 40 years old were included in this study,and 79 were diagnosed with CIS,with a prevalence rate of 4.87％.There were statistically differences in age,hypertension,diabetes,dyslipidemia,family history of stroke and serum levels of thioredoxin(Trx),mannose-binding lectin associated serine protease 3(MASP-3)and mannose-binding lectin(MBL)between the two groups(P＜0.05).Age(≥60 years old),hypertension,diabetes,dyslipidemia,family history of stroke,Trx＞9.10 μg·L-1were risk factors for CIS,MASP-3＞450.40 μg·L-1 and MBL＞25.31 μg·L-1 were protective factors for CIS(P＜0.05).Age,hypertension,diabetes,dyslipidemia,family history of stroke,Trx,MASP-3,and MBL combined predicted an area under curve(AUC)of 0.831,a sensitivity of 91.36％,and a specificity of 78.52％for CIS.Conclusion The risk of CIS is higher in people over 40 years old,which is mainly related to age,hypertension,diabetes,dyslipidemia,family history of stroke,serum Trx,MASP-3,MBL and other factors.
万方数据
维普
