河南医学研究2024,Vol.33Issue(11) :1974-1977.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-437X.2024.11.013

双相情感障碍抑郁期自杀风险的影响因素分析及预测模型建立

Influencing Factors and Establishment of Prediction Model for Suicide Risk in Depressive Period of Bipolar Disorder

赵淑芝 赵福涛 孙艺茹 李聪慧
河南医学研究2024,Vol.33Issue(11) :1974-1977.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-437X.2024.11.013

双相情感障碍抑郁期自杀风险的影响因素分析及预测模型建立

Influencing Factors and Establishment of Prediction Model for Suicide Risk in Depressive Period of Bipolar Disorder

赵淑芝 1赵福涛 2孙艺茹 3李聪慧1
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作者信息

  • 1. 河南省荣康医院普通精神科,河南洛阳 471000
  • 2. 驻马店市第二人民医院睡眠医学中心,河南驻马店 463000
  • 3. 郑州大学精准医学中心检验科,河南郑州 450000
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摘要

目的 分析双相情感障碍(BD)抑郁期自杀风险的影响因素,建立其早期预测模型.方法 选取2020年4月至2023年12月河南省荣康医院收治的345例BD患者,以Beck自杀意念量表中文版(BSI-CV)评估患者自杀风险,分析BD抑郁期患者自杀风险的影响因素,并构建列线图模型预测患者自杀风险.结果 345例BD患者BSI-CV平均分为(22.45±4.91)分,其中自杀低风险、中风险、高风险患者分别占比54.20%、27.54%、18.26%.重度抑郁、自杀家族史、重大精神创伤、额叶α波不对称、杨氏躁狂状态评定量表(YMRS)评分、冲动性量表(BIS-11)评分、童年创伤问卷(CTQ)评分、痛苦表露指表(DDI)评分均是BD抑郁期自杀风险的独立影响因素(P<0.05).经校准曲线、ROC曲线检验显示,列线图模型在内部、外部验证数据中具有较好的准确性和一致性.结论 BD抑郁期患者自杀风险处于中等水平,并与重大精神创伤、CTQ评分、BIS-11评分等因素相关,临床可依据以上分析预测患者自杀风险,并对症实施防护措施,尽可能减少自杀行为.

Abstract

Objective To Analyze the influencing factors of suicidal risk during depression in bipolar disorder(BD)and establish an early prediction model.Methods A total of 345 BD patients admitted to Rongkang Hospital of Henan Province from April 2020 to December 2023 were selected to evaluate their suicide risk using the Beck scale for suicide ideation-Chinese version(BSI-CV).The influencing factors of suicide risk in BD patients with depression were analyzed,and a column chart model was constructed to predict their suicide risk.Results The average BSI-CV score of 345 BD patients was(22.45±4.91),with 54.20%,27.54%,and 18.26%of patients at low,medium,and high risk of suicide,respectively.Severe depression,family history of suicide,major psychological trauma,frontal lobe α Asymmetric waves,Yang's Manic State Rating Scale(YMRS)score,barratt impulsiveness scale version(BIS-11)score,childhood trauma questionnaire(CTQ)score,and distress disclosure index(DDI)score are all independent influencing factors for suicidal risk in BD depression(P<0.05).The calibration curve and ROC curve tests show that the column chart model has good accuracy and consistency in both internal and external validation data.Conclusion The risk of suicide in patients with BD depression is at a moderate level and is related to factors such as major psychological trauma,CTQ score,BIS-11 score,etc.Clinical analysis can predict the risk of suicide in patients based on the above analysis,and implement targeted protective measures to minimize suicidal behavior.

关键词

双相情感障碍/抑郁/自杀/风险/狂躁/预测/列线图

Key words

bipolar disorder/depression/commit suicide/risk/mania/forecast/nomograph

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出版年

2024
河南医学研究
河南省医学科学院

河南医学研究

影响因子:0.979
ISSN:1004-437X
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