Establishment and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Patients with Esophageal Cancer After Radical Surgery:A SEER Program-Based Study
Objective To construct and validate a nomogram model that accurately predicts the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer(EC)after radical surgery.Methods A total of 1 754 eligible EC patients were extracted from the surveillance,epidemiology,and end results(SEER)database of the National Cancer Institute in the United States.LASSO regression and Cox regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors for patient survival,and a nomogram was constructed based on the results of multivariable Cox regression analysis.The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using consistency index(C-index),calibration curve,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results Age,differentiation grade,T stage,tumor size,and log odds of positive lymph nodes(LODDS)were independent predictors for overall survival(OS)in patients after radical surgery for EC(P＜0.05),and a nomogram was constructed based on these variables.The C-index,calibration curve,ROC curve results showed that the model had better discriminative ability compared to TNM staging system.DCA demonstrated that the nomogram could provide clinical benefit for patients.Conclusion The nomogram developed in this study has more accurate predictive ability than traditional TNM staging system and can bring more clinical benefits to patients.
esophageal cancerlog odds of positive lymph nodesnomogramSEER databaseprognosis
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NSTL
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