Nomogram model for prediction of postoperative surgical wound infection in elderly patients with abdominal surgery
Objective The risk factors of abdominal surgical wound infection in elderly patients were analyzed to predict the probability of abdominal surgical wound infection.Methods A retrospective study of relevant statistical data from elderly patients with abdominal surgery was conducted at a tertiary teaching hospital from 2016 to 2020.Analysis of differences between groups by chi-square test.The factors which had a statistical significance were screened out by lo-gistic multivariate regression analysis.R software was used to establish the corresponding prediction model of surgical wound infection,and the prediction of the model were verified.Results A total of 2 164 elderly patients with abdominal surgery were collected,and 435 patients were enrolled in the study,64 of them had surgical wound infection and the in-fection rate was2.91％;The commonly implicated pathogens were gram-negative bacteria,accounting for 75.28％.Comparison of different types of abdominal surgery wound infection percentage,the highest SSI rate was detected in lapa-rotomy wounds.Multivariate analysis showed that chronic lung diseases(OR=5.159),diabetes(OR=1.027),ap-proach(OR=0.021)and hospital stay(OR=1.182)were independent risk factors for postoperative surgical wound in-fection.The verification results of the nomogram model showed that the consistency index of the model was 0.881.The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve(AUC)for the nomogram model was 0.880(95％CI:0.831-0.931).Conclusion The established nomogram model has high predictive ability for postoperative surgical wound infection in elderly patients with abdominal surgery.Monitoring infection risk factors could forewarning the occurrence of postoperative surgical wound infection,which had practical clinical value.
Elderly patientAbdominal surgerySurgical wound infectionThe nomogram model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
