Risk prediction of cervical central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma
Objective To analyze the risk factors of cervical central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma and construct a nomogram to predict the risk of central lymph node metastasis(CLNM),so as to provide reference for clinical diagnosis and treatment of PTC.Methods The clinical data of 121 nodules(102 patients)were analyzed retro-spectively.According to the postoperative pathology and the presence of CLNM,the patients were divided into metastasis group and non-metastasis group.Compare the general data,laboratory examination,ultrasound and BRAFV600E gene detection results of the two groups,screen the independent risk factors and construct the nomogram.,Draw ROC curve and calibration chart to verify the effectiveness of the model.Results Diameter greater than 10.1mm,TSH greater than 2.46 mIU/L,boundary ambiguity,and BRAF V600E positive were independent risk factors for CLNM,and the AUC of the Nomogram was 0.816(95％CI0.741-0.890).Conclusion The nomogram model based on diameter,boundary,TSH and BRAFV600E is of certain value in predicting the risk of CLNM,which can provide reference for the formulation of treatment plan for PTC.
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