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机器人辅助腹腔镜下子宫内膜癌术后静脉血栓栓塞发生风险预测模型构建

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目的 探讨机器人辅助腹腔镜下子宫内膜癌术后静脉血栓栓塞形成的相关危险因素,并构建风险预测模型.方法 收集2018 年1 月至2022 年9 月于郑州大学第一附属医院行机器人辅助腹腔镜下子宫内膜癌分期手术且术后病理确诊的133 例患者的临床资料,根据术后1 周是否形成血栓分为血栓组与非血栓组,采用单因素及多因素Logistic回归分析对子宫内膜癌患者术后静脉血栓栓塞形成的危险因素进行分析,并构建风险预测模型.结果 术后发生静脉血栓栓塞35 例(血栓组),未发生静脉血栓栓塞98 例(非血栓组),术后静脉血栓栓塞形成率为26.3%.单因素分析提示,血栓组和非血栓组患者年龄、是否有合并症、病理类型、是否合并淋巴结转移、国际妇产科联盟分期、D-二聚体、C反应蛋白(CRP)、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比率(NLR)比较差异均有统计学意义(t=15.847,P<0.001;t=11.107,P=0.004;t=18.015,P<0.001;t=7.668,P=0.006;t=9.381,P=0.025;t=8.764,P=0.003;t=4.879,P<0.001;t=3.094,P=0.004).多因素分析提示,年龄、是否有合并症、CRP、NLR是术后发生静脉血栓栓塞的独立危险因素(χ2=7.371,P=0.007;χ2=4.090,P=0.043;χ2=17.579,P<0.001;χ2=16.257,P<0.001).术后血栓预测模型为Logit(P)=-9.099+0.800X1+0.026X2+0.127X3+1.696X4,受试者工作特征曲线的曲线下面积为0.887,敏感性 74.3%,特异性 94.8%,模型拟合优度检验提示预测能力良好(χ2=10.336,P=0.242).结论 年龄、是否有合并症、NLR、CRP是机器人辅助腹腔镜下子宫内膜癌术后静脉血栓栓塞发生的独立危险因素,由此构建的风险预测模型具有较好的区分度和校准度,可有效评估术后静脉血栓栓塞形成的风险,临床中需要对该类患者给予相应的防治措施.
Construction of a risk prediction model for venous thrombosis after robot-assisted laparoscopic surgery for endometrial cancer
Objective To investigate the risk factors for venous thrombosis after robot-assisted laparoscopic surgery for endometrial cancer,and to construct a risk prediction model.Methods The clinical data of 133 patients who under-went robot-assisted laparoscopic endometrial cancer staging surgery in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2018 to September 2022 and were diagnosed with pathology after surgery were collected,and the risk factors for postoperative venous thrombosis in patients with endometrial cancer were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis,and a risk prediction model was constructed.Results There were 35 cases of venous thrombosis after surgery(the thrombosis group)and 98 cases of no venous thrombosis(the non-thrombosis group),and the rate of postoper-ative venous thrombosis was 26.3%.Univariate analysis showed that age,comorbidities,pathological type,lymph node metastasis,International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage,D-dimer,C-reactive protein(CRP)and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR)were statistically significant(t=15.847,P<0.001;t=11.107,P=0.004;t=18.015,P<0.001;t=7.668,P=0.006;t=9.381,P=0.025;t=8.764,P=0.003;t=4.879,P<0.001;t=3.094,P=0.004).Multivariate analysis showed that age,comorbidities,CRP and NLR were independent risk factors for venous thrombosis af-ter surgery(χ2=7.371,P=0.007;χ2=4.090,P=0.043;χ2=17.579,P<0.001;χ2=16.257,P<0.001).The postop-erative thrombosis prediction model was Logit(P)=-9.099+0.800X1+0.026X2+0.127X3+1.696X4,the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.887,sensitivity 74.3%,specificity 94.8%,model goodness-of-fit test suggested good predictive ability(χ2=10.336,P=0.242).Conclusion Age,comorbidities,CRP and NLR are inde-pendent risk factors for venous thrombosis after robot-assisted laparoscopic surgery for endometrial cancer.The risk predic-tion model constructed by this has a good degree of differentiation and calibration,which can effectively assess the risk of postoperative venous thrombosis,and corresponding prevention and treatment measures need to be given to such patients in clinical practice.

robotic surgeryendometrial cancervenous thrombusrisk factorspredictive models

刘洋洋、赵倩、李改玲

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郑州大学第一附属医院妇科,河南 郑州 450052

机器人手术 子宫内膜癌 静脉血栓栓塞 危险因素 预测模型

2024

肿瘤基础与临床
河南省抗癌协会,郑州大学,河南省肿瘤医院,河南省肿瘤研究所

肿瘤基础与临床

影响因子:0.861
ISSN:1673-5412
年,卷(期):2024.37(3)