Systematic evaluation of risk prediction models for early neurological deterioration in patients with acute ischemic stroke
Objective To systematically review the risk prediction model of early neurological deterioration in pa-tients with acute ischemic stroke(AIS).Methods The databases of CNKI,Wanfang,CBM,PubMed,Embase,and Cochrane Library were systematically searched,and the retrieval time was from July 1,2010 to July 31,2022.Two researchers conducted literature screening and data extraction according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria,and used the PMROBAST tool to evaluate the quality of the included literature.Results Seven risk prediction model stud-ies were included,and the incidence of early neurological deterioration in patients with AIS was 19.8％.In this pa-per,1 literature was verified externally,4 literatures were verified internally,and 2 literatures were simultaneously verified internally and externally.The area under the working characteristic curve of the subjects in the modeling group and the validation group of the 7 literatures was＞0.7,with pretty good calibration and good overall predic-tion performance.Seven studies had high bias,but low risk of applicability.The most common risk factors in the prediction model were blood glucose and inflammatory cytokines.Conclusion There are few studies on the construc-tion and verification of risk prediction models for early neurological deterioration in patients with AIS,which are still in the primary stage of development.Although the prediction performance of each model is better,the overall risk of bias is high and there is a lack of external validation.It suggests that the prediction model for the high value and in-ternal external validation should be developed in the future.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
