Construction and validation of the disability risk prediction model for older adults with hearing disabilities
Objective To explore the predictive factors of disability in elderly people with hearing disabilities,and to construct a disability risk prediction model for them.Methods This study,based on the China health and retire-ment longitudinal survey(CHARLS)database,used secondary data research methods select 374 elderly people who reached the age of 60 and above in 2015 as the study subjects,which were randomly divided into training set(n=261)and test set(n=113)according to the ratio of 7:3.They were categorized into"no disability occurred during follow-up"group(n=164)and"disability occurred during follow-up"group(n=97)based on whether or not disa-bility occurred in 2018.Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)multivariate logistic regression was used to screen the variables that might affect the occurrence of incapacitation.Multifactorial logistic regression was used to construct the predictive models,plot the nomogram,and externally validated.Results The training set had a 37.2％incidence of incapacitation.Hypertension,liver disease,arthritis or rheumatism,literacy level,tooth loss,length of sleep at night,cognitive function,smoking,and length of midday sleep were predictors of the occur-rence of incapacitation in older adults with hearing disabilities.The area under the ROC curve for the training set model was 0.703,with 95％CI was 0.636-0.769,a sensitivity of 69.1％and a specificity of 67.1％;The calibra-tion curve was similar to the ideal curve,with a Brier score of 0.207;And the area under the ROC curve for the test set was 0.713,with 95％CI was 0.606-0.821,a sensitivity of 76.3％and a specificity of 68.0％.Conclusion Hy-pertension,liver disease,arthritis or rheumatism,literacy level,tooth loss,length of sleep at night,cognitive func-tion,smoking,and length of midday sleep are independent predictors of the occurrence of disability in older adults with hearing disabilities,and the nomogram prediction model is good,and it has a certain predictive value of the risk of disability in older adults with hearing disabilities.
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