Objective To establish and verify the prediction model of acute moderate to severe pain in children with traumatic limb fracture after surgery.Methods A total of 300 children with traumatic limb fracture who under-went surgery in the department of Orthopedics,Childrens Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University from January to June 2022 were selected as the modeling group by convenience sampling method,and the risk factors were deter-mined by univariate and logistic regression analysis and the prediction model was constructed,and the nomograph was drawn by R software,and the area under receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the differentiation and calibration of the model.A total of 110 children with traumatic limb fracture surgery from July to December 2022 were selected as the verification group to verify the clinical application effect of the model.Results The results of logistic regression analysis showed that there were statistically significant differences in the degree of limb swelling,preoperative pain,and preoperative anxiety in children(P＜0.05),and they were included as predictive factors to construct a predictive model.The area under ROC curve of the construc-ted model was 0.906(95％CI was 0.854-0.957),the maximum Youden index was 0.617,the optimal critical val-ue was 0.779,the sensitivity was 69.5％,the specificity was 92.2％,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was P=0.971.The results of model verification showed that the optimal critical value was 0.640,the sensitivity was 61.0％,and the specificity was 96.1％,when the area under ROC curve was 0.838(95％CI was 0.8-0.875)and the maximum Youden index was 0.571.The calibration curve shows that the risk of the nomogram in the validation group was consistent with the actual situation.Conclusion The nomogram model established in this study has a good degree of differentiation and calibration,and can better predict the risk of acute moderate to severe pain in children with traumatic limb fracture after surgery,which can provide a reference for medical staff to implement preventive pain management measures.
万方数据
维普
