Analysis and prediction of the incidence,morbidity and death of leukemia in China
Objective To analyze the prevalence of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019,predict the incidence,morbidity and mortality of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040,and provides reference for the formulation of leukemia-related prevention and treatment strategies in China.Methods Based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database,the incidence,morbidity and mortality data of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected,and the rate of change and annual estimated percentage of change(EAPC)were used to describe the epidemic trend of the disease.The Autoregressive Moving Average(ARIMA)model was used to predict the prevalence of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040.Results In 2019,the age-standardized incidence,age-standardized prevalence and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased by 17.62％,10.97％,and 41.56％,respectively,compared with 1990,and an average annual decrease of 1.06％,0.89％,and 2.05％,respectively(P＜0.05).From 1990 to 2019,the reduction age-standardized incidence rate,age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate in Chinese women(EAPC was 1.56％,1.38％,and 2.62％,respectively)was higher than that of men(EAPC was 0.61％,0.43％,and 1.59％,respectively).In 2019,the incidence and prevalence were highest in the age group under 5 years of age,and the mortality rate was the highest in the age group over 80 years old.The prediction results of ARIMA model showed that the age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence of leukemia in China showed an increasing trend from 2020 to 2040,while the age-standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend.It is estimated that by 2040,the age-standardized incidence rate,age-standardized prevalence rate,and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia will be 14.06/100 000,108.23/100 000,and 2.83/100 000.Conclusions From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence rate,age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased year by year,but they were still at a high level.The prediction results show that the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of leukemia in China will continue to increase from 2020 to 2040,and it is necessary to continue to strengthen the surveillance,prevention and control of leukemia in the future.
Leukemiaglobal burden of diseasechanging trendforecasting analysis
万方数据
维普
