摘要
目的 分析1990年-2019年中国白血病流行情况,预测2020年-2040年中国白血病发病、患病及死亡情况,为中国白血病相关防治策略的制订提供参考.方法 基于2019年全球疾病负担数据库,收集1990年-2019年中国白血病的发病、患病和死亡数据,采用变化率(％)和年估计变化百分比(estimated annual percentage change,EAPC)描述疾病的流行趋势.运用自回归移动平均模型预测2020年-2040年中国白血病的流行情况.结果 2019年中国白血病年龄标准化发病率、年龄标准化患病率和年龄标准化死亡率较1990年分别下降17.62％、10.97％和41.56％,年均分别下降1.06％、0.89％和2.05％(P＜0.05);1990年-2019年中国女性年龄标准化发病率、年龄标准化患病率和年龄标准化死亡率的下降速度(EAPC分别为1.56％、1.38％、2.62％)均高于男性(EAPC分别为0.61％、0.43％、1.59％);2019年5岁以下年龄组发病率和患病率最高,80岁以上年龄组死亡率最高.ARIMA模型预测结果表明,2020年-2040年中国白血病年龄标准化发病率、年龄标准化患病率呈上升趋势,年龄标准化死亡率呈下降趋势.预计到2040年白血病的年龄标准化发病率、年龄标准化患病率和年龄标准化死亡率分别为14.06/10万、108.23/10万、2.83/10万.结论 1990年-2019年,中国白血病的年龄标准化发病率、年龄标准化患病率及年龄标准化死亡率呈逐年下降,但仍处于较高水平.预测结果显示2020年-2040年中国白血病年龄标准化发病率和年龄标准化患病率仍然呈上升趋势,未来仍需继续加强白血病的监测及防控工作.
Abstract
Objective To analyze the prevalence of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019,predict the incidence,morbidity and mortality of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040,and provides reference for the formulation of leukemia-related prevention and treatment strategies in China.Methods Based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database,the incidence,morbidity and mortality data of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected,and the rate of change and annual estimated percentage of change(EAPC)were used to describe the epidemic trend of the disease.The Autoregressive Moving Average(ARIMA)model was used to predict the prevalence of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040.Results In 2019,the age-standardized incidence,age-standardized prevalence and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased by 17.62％,10.97％,and 41.56％,respectively,compared with 1990,and an average annual decrease of 1.06％,0.89％,and 2.05％,respectively(P＜0.05).From 1990 to 2019,the reduction age-standardized incidence rate,age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate in Chinese women(EAPC was 1.56％,1.38％,and 2.62％,respectively)was higher than that of men(EAPC was 0.61％,0.43％,and 1.59％,respectively).In 2019,the incidence and prevalence were highest in the age group under 5 years of age,and the mortality rate was the highest in the age group over 80 years old.The prediction results of ARIMA model showed that the age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence of leukemia in China showed an increasing trend from 2020 to 2040,while the age-standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend.It is estimated that by 2040,the age-standardized incidence rate,age-standardized prevalence rate,and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia will be 14.06/100 000,108.23/100 000,and 2.83/100 000.Conclusions From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence rate,age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased year by year,but they were still at a high level.The prediction results show that the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of leukemia in China will continue to increase from 2020 to 2040,and it is necessary to continue to strengthen the surveillance,prevention and control of leukemia in the future.
维普
万方数据