Study on return value calculation of extreme wave height induced by typhoon
Return value calculation of extreme marine environmental parameters induced by typhoon is of great significance for engineering disaster prevention.The rationality of the calculation depends on the sampling method and probability distribution model.In this paper,the sampling method of ty-phoon process was combined with exponentiated Weibull distribution model.A Poisson-exponentiated Weibull compound extreme value distribution model was established based on the compound extreme value distribution theory.This new distribution model was applied to the probability prediction of ex-treme marine environmental parameters under typhoon,and the corresponding return values were cal-culated.The study showed that the annual typhoon frequency at the selected calculation points con-formed to Poisson distribution,and the exponentiated Weibull distribution fitted the sequence of ex-treme wave height induced by typhoon well.It was reliable to calculate the return values by using Pois-son-exponentiated Weibull compound distribution model.This compound model was more perfect in physical and statistical sense,and the calculation results were stable and reasonable.
typhoonextreme wave heightcompound extreme value distributionprobability predic-tionreturn period
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