首页|渤海强对流天气监测及概念模型初建

渤海强对流天气监测及概念模型初建

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利用micaps系统个例库、秦皇岛雷达、天津雷达、FY-2E红外云图、海岛站、GPS闪电定位仪、探空及中尺度物理量场等资料,采用同步资料叠加分析方法,对2007-2011年4-10月出现渤海西岸区至海区强对流天气的25个例进行综合分析和对应关系的研究.初步得出:(1)强对流发生时三类天气尺度背景场条件下的高空与低层急流配置及K指数和SI指数对应值,渤海边界层辐合线与强对流天气落区对应关系;(2)同步卫星云图中尺度MCC象元动态特征及TBB值;(3)海区中β尺度单体及多单体风暴雷达反射率因子、回波顶高特征及阈值,回波顶高与雷电分布对应关系;(4)初步建立渤海强对流天气概念模型,归纳海区强对流预警指标.在2012年5-6月业务试验中效益显著,为渤海海洋强对流天气监测、精细化预报方法研究提供参考依据.
The monitoring for the severe convective weather and the preliminary building of its conceptual model in the Bohai Sea
Using the observation data from radar in Tianjin and Qinhuangdao,infrared cloud image of satellite FY-2E,GPS Lightning Detector,the meteorological sounding data,and the meteorological data on the island et al.,25 cases of severe convective weather from Apr to Jul.in 2007 to 2011 years in the west coast of the Bohai sea are studied by the synchronize data overlay analysis method.The preliminary results have been obtained:(1) for the distribution of high-layer jet stream and low-layer jet stream and the value of K index and SI index under the background filed of three kinds of synoptic-scale when being severe convective systems,and the corresponding relationship between the convergence line of the boundary layer over Bohai sea and severe convective area; (2)for the dynamic feature of MCC pixels on synchronous satellite cloud image and the value of TBB.(3) for the radar reflectivity factor on the cell-storm of β-Mesoscale and the multi cell-storm of β-Mesoscale,the feature of echo top and its threshold,the corresponding relation of the echo top height and lightning distribution.(4) for establishing the weather conceptual model of severe convection over Bohai sea,summarizing the warning index about severe convective weather in sea area.The benefit is remarkable for the forecast business from May to June 2012,and it can provide basic support for the monitoring of severe convective weather on marine and the elaborative forecast method study.

Bohai seaconvective weathermonitoring and analysis conceptual modelwarning index

李延江、陈小雷、景华、李飏、王莎

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河北省秦皇岛海洋气象台,秦皇岛河北066000

河北省气象台,秦皇岛河北050021

渤海海区 强对流天气 监测分析 概念模型 预警指标

公益性行业项目河北省气象科研开发项目

GYHY2011060062011ky30

2013

海洋预报
国家海洋环境预报中心

海洋预报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.37
ISSN:1003-0239
年,卷(期):2013.30(4)
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