Establishment and application of extreme wind speed prediction equation in Shanghai coastal area
Using statistic analysis method,the relationship between 2-minute average wind speed and extreme wind speed of three buoys in Shanghai coastal area is studied.The results show that the two kinds of wind speed have a good linear relationship.By building the regression equation of the two kinds of wind speed,the objective equations of evaluating the extreme speed are achieved.For the three buoys,the one-dimensional linear regression equation can all commendably reflect the relationship between the two kinds of wind speed.The absolute errors between observed extreme wind speed and fitted extreme wind speed of the three buoys are all below lm/s;the errors of the three buoys are mainly positive; the proportions of the sample whose absolute error is greater than 2m/s are all below 5％.The trial extreme wind prediction results by using WRF output wind show that,the absolute errors between observed extreme wind speed and forecasted extreme wind speed of the three buoys are all below 2m/s; the proportions of the sample whose absolute error is greater than 4m/s are all below 10％; for forecast scores are all above 74,the objective forecast equation of the extreme wind speed has a good performance.
average wind speedextreme wind speedregression analysisWRF mode
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
