The observation data of 13 wind stations and 3 wave buoys around Jiangsu coastal region and Yangtze River estuary from January to July 2021 are used to compare with the wind and wave forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NCEP/NOAA)global forecasting system.The results show that compared with the previous generation version of the NCEP/NOAA global forecasting system,the current version improves significantly in wind forecasts.The wind speed forecast error outside the Yangtze River estuary is greater than that in the Jiangsu coastal region,where the root mean squared errors of 24 h wind speed and direction forecasts are 2 m/s and 45 degrees,respectively.Wind speed forecastingaccuracyonwindydaysdecreasesoutsidetheYangtzeRiverestuary,butdoesnotchangeobviously in the Jiangsu coastal region.Wind direction forecasting accuracy does not change obviously outside the Yangtze River estuary,but increases in the Jiangsu coastal region.The accuracy of wave height and direction forecasts on high wave days decreases and increases,respectively.Under extreme weather conditions,the global forecasting system also demonstrates capability to forecast wind around the Yangtze River estuary,but the timing of maximum wind speed is delayed by 6～9 h,and the drastic wind speed change cannot be predicted.Combing the Long Short-Term Memory method and the NCEP/NOAA data can improve the short-term single-station forecast.
关键词
江苏近岸及长江口外/预报评估/风场/有效波高/长短期记忆网络/海上风电业
Key words
Jiangsu coastal region and Yangtze River estuary/forecast evaluation/wind/significant wave height/Long Short-Term Memory/off-shore wind power industry
维普
万方数据