海洋预报2024,Vol.41Issue(4) :100-109.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2024.04.010

基于海洋环境影响风险分析的海上搜救风险评估研究及典型海域示范应用

Risk assessment of maritime search and rescue based on marine environmental risk analysis and its applications in typical waters in China

郭凯旋 杨逸秋 于寒 张苗茵
海洋预报2024,Vol.41Issue(4) :100-109.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2024.04.010

基于海洋环境影响风险分析的海上搜救风险评估研究及典型海域示范应用

Risk assessment of maritime search and rescue based on marine environmental risk analysis and its applications in typical waters in China

郭凯旋 1杨逸秋 2于寒 2张苗茵2
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作者信息

  • 1. 国家海洋环境预报中心,北京 100081;国家海洋环境预报中心 自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室,北京 100081
  • 2. 国家海洋环境预报中心,北京 100081
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摘要

针对我国海上遇险事故快速增长的严峻态势,筛选出风、浪、能见度、海流4个影响海上搜救行动安全的主要影响要素,基于层次分析理论建立了海上搜救风险评估等级划分标准和海上搜救风险评估方法.根据我国海上专业救助船舶、飞机的性能参数计算其在复杂气象条件下实施海上搜救行动时所能应对的最大风险阈值,选取我国4处典型海域,使用统计学方法分别计算了海上搜救环境风险值.

Abstract

In view of the rapid growth of China's maritime accident situation,risk grade rule and risk assessment methodology for maritime search and rescue have been established based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process theory,according to four major factors including wind,wave,visibility and currents,which affect the safety of the MSAR operations.The maximum risk threshold of the MSAR operations is obtained according to main performance parameters of maritime professional rescue ships and aircraft and weather conditions,and the environmental risk values of the MSAR operations in four typical waters in China are acquired using statistical method.

关键词

复杂气象/海上搜救/风险评估/层次分析

Key words

complex weather conditions/maritime search and rescue/risk assessment/Analytic Hierarchy Process

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基金项目

南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)2023年度自主科研项目(SML2022SP504)

出版年

2024
海洋预报
国家海洋环境预报中心

海洋预报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.37
ISSN:1003-0239
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