Exploration and application of meteorological forecasting model for migration of Spodoptera frugiperda
A meteorological forecasting model for the migration of Spodoptera frugiperda was prelimi-narily established based on the weather forecast platform and the medium-short term numerical forecast of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)to accurately predict the migration routes of pests and use weather forecasting technology to predict migratory pests.The atmospheric circula-tion situation and low-level wind dynamic were used to accurately forecast the migration routes,migration time including the first day of emergence and the day with a peak number and falling zone of Spodoptera frugiperda.A detailed review of two typical forecasting cases of the migration of Spodoptera frugiperda in 2021 was conducted.The typical weather processes and meteorological factor fields of the migratory layer of Spodoptera frugiperda,which migrated northward to Hubei Province in spring(first day of sighting)and southward to Hubei Province in autumn(peak day)in 2021,were analyzed.The HYSPLIT route model was used to simulate the backward routes of migration.The prediction conclusion was validated us-ing data from monitoring Spodoptera frugiperda in the field and from monitoring lamp and migration routes.The results showed that the forecasting conclusions of two typical prediction cases were in good agreement with data from monitoring Spodoptera frugiperda in the field and from monitoring lamp,and the scenario simulation of migration routes.The forecasting of the migration time,falling fields and routes was basically correct,which verified the feasibility of using the weather forecast technologies to predict migrato-ry pests.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
