首页|基于MaxEnt模型的湖北烟区潜在适宜性分布及其环境特征分析

基于MaxEnt模型的湖北烟区潜在适宜性分布及其环境特征分析

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  • 维普
为全面评价生态气候因子对湖北省烟叶生长发育的影响,利用2008-2020年中国气象局陆面数据同化系统(CMA land data assimilation system,CLDAS)数据集和其他环境因子,基于最大熵模型(MaxEnt),利用湖北省西部烟区实际种植点位模拟湖北省烟区的潜在适宜性分布,并评估影响适宜性分布的主导环境因子.结果显示:MaxEnt模型对烟草适宜性分布的模拟预测精度较高(AUC=0.854).海拔(650～1 750 m)、土壤类型(黄壤)、团棵期平均最低气温(8.9～15.0℃)、旺长期平均气温(16.0～22.9℃)、成熟期平均气温(18.8～25.6℃)是影响湖北烟草分布的主导环境因子.烟草的高适生区主要分布在恩施、十堰和襄阳南部及宜昌东南部,占湖北省总面积的18.2%,80%区域的海拔为700～1 350 m、团棵期平均最低气温11.2～14.5℃、旺长期平均气温19.2～22.8℃、成熟期平均气温22.0～25.4℃.在所有环境因子中,海拔高度起决定性作用,温度则是影响烟草生长发育的重要气象因子.研究表明,本研究结果与湖北烟区实际空间分布基本相符.
Distribution of potential suitability and environmental characteristics of tobacco areas in Hubei Province based on MaxEnt model
The distribution of potential suitability of tobacco areas in Hubei Province was simulated by using the CLDAS data set of land data assimilation system of China Meteorological Administration from 2008 to 2020 and other environmental factors,and the actual planting sites based on the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)to comprehensively evaluate the effects of ecological climate factors on the growth and de-velopment of tobacco leaves in Hubei Province.The dominant environmental factors that affect its distribu-tion were studied.The results showed that MaxEnt model had a high accuracy in predicting the suitability distribution of tobacco areas with AUC of 0.854.Altitude(650-1 750 m),soil type(yellow soil),mini-mum temperature at the rosette stage(8.9-15.0℃),temperature in the prosperously growing period(16.0-22.9℃),and temperature in the maturing period(18.8-25.6℃)were the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of tobacco areas in Hubei Province.The highly suitable areas of tobacco are mainly distributed in Enshi,Shiyan,southern Xiangyang and southeastern Yichang,accounting for 18.2％of the total area of Hubei Province.The climate characteristics of 80％of the region are at an altitude of 700 to 1350m,with an average minimum temperature of 11.2 to 14.5℃ in the cluster period,an average temperature of 19.2 to 22.8℃ in the peak period,and an average temperature of 22.0 to 25.4℃ in the mature period.Among all environmental factors,altitude plays a decisive role,while temperature is an important meteorological factor affecting the growth and development of tobacco.It is indicated that the re-sults are basically consistent with the actual spatial distribution of tobacco growing areas in Hubei Province.It will provide a theoretical reference for the scientific planting and layout of tobacco in Hubei Province.

tobacco areas of Hubei Provincemaximum entropy modelthe growth and development periodpotential distributiondominant environmental factorsecological suitabilitygeographic informa-tion system(GIS)

贾文茜、陈英英、陈正洪、李建平、敖银银

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湖北省气象服务中心,武汉 430205

湖北省烟草科学研究院,武汉 430030

湖北省公众气象服务中心,武汉 430074

湖北烟区 最大熵模型 生育期 潜在分布 主导环境因子 生态适宜性 地理信息系统(GIS)

湖北省烟草公司科技项目

027Y2021-020

2024

10.13300/j.cnki.hnlkxb.2024.01.011

华中农业大学学报
华中农业大学

华中农业大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：1.09
ISSN：1000-2421
年,卷(期)：2024.43(1)
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